780
FXUS65 KPIH 110753
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
153 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical winds and critical relative humidity Tuesday
  afternoon/early evening.

- Isolated (virga) shower or storm Tuesday afternoon, mainly
  southern and southeast highlands.

- Wildfire smoke will continue to impact the area on and off for
  the next few days. Overall improvement is expected by mid-week
  into the end of the week.

- Major pattern change with showers and thunderstorms expected
  Thursday into Saturday with significant cooling.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Models indicating another round of isolated storms this
afternoon across the southern highlands. Cloud cover north of
the southern highlands does not look as impressive as it had the
previous few forecast runs. As a result, the high temperatures
for today are warm once again with highs in the low to id 90s
for many of our lower elevation communities.

Models show showers persisting through the night across the southern
highlands as the deeper moisture pools to our south. On Wednesday
clouds and showers begin to advance northward. The NBM pops are
probably underdone across the Magic Valley and Snake River Plain at
this point for Wednesday. Think there will be some isolated showers
and thunderstorms but not overly confident yet. The big push of
moisture occurs Wednesday Night into Thursday. A long wave trough
moves onto the western U.S. coast while an embedded circulation
ejects out of California and into the northern Great Basin on
Thursday. Chances for showers and storms continues to look good.
Quite a bit of cloud cover will likely be around which could limit
thunderstorm development on Thursday. With that said, we continue a
marginal risk for Thursday through Saturday for heavy rain.
Essentially if a strong storm finds a burn scar or poor drainage
area then could see some isolated flooding. Right now, the
thunderstorm potential looks better Friday/Saturday with the models
showing larger breaks in the clouds to allow for morning and early
afternoon heating. Although in these types of strong monsoon pushes,
timing the cloud cover from previous day`s convection is tricky,
especially several days out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms is expected
across the southern highlands today. The models bring the
convection as far north at PIH/BYI/DIJ. At this point,
confidence of a storm on station at these sites is sitting
around 20% or less. Otherwise, expect wind gusts to 20kts at
many sites today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Winds look a little less today than yesterday even though
humidity levels are still low. Will hold off on red flag
warnings for today. Isoalted storms are possible across the
southern and southeast highlands today and on Wednesday.
Thursday is tricky if we`ll actually see enough thunderstorm
coverage to warrant a red flag warning and if we do the storms
may be too wet to start many fires. Something to monitor over
the next day or two.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13