872
FXUS65 KPIH 071150
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
450 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow in the mountains this afternoon and tonight. Rain
  in some of the lower elevations

- Even warmer temperatures on Tuesday, approaching record
  warmth.

- Moderate to heavy snow for high elevations in the mountains
  and highlands Tuesday-Tuesday night. Windy Tuesday night
  through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 155 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Coastal upper level ridging continues to keep the forecast area
on the edge of the storm track, a little farther north than
during the latest winter storm. This means slightly warmer
temperatures which will push snow levels higher. The next short
wave moving through this mean northwesterly flow arrives during
the afternoon and continues overnight. Light precipitation
continues on Mon/Mon evening, with snow level remaining fairly
high. Then Mon late night/Tue/Tue night an impulse with much
more moisture pushes in through and leaves moderate to heavy
snow in the mountains and light rainfall at lower elevations.

Temperatures are still forecasted to be very mild for the time
of year. Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley will range
from 35 to 45 deg F for today. Even Stanley is in the upper
30s. On Mon, afternoon highs are up another 2 to 4 deg F with
eastern Magic Valley surpassing 50 deg F. The 50 deg highs
nearly reach Idaho Falls on Tue. And Stanley on that day exceeds
40 deg. Cloud cover at night also means mild overnight lows,
with few places below 6000ft elevation getting below freezing.

Being so near the storm track aloft, some of that momentum can
be seen at the surface, but on the order of 15 to 25 mph wind at
a maximum.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 155 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Cluster analysis was not available at forecast time. The good
news is that the deterministic NBM indicates that Wed is the
last period for significant precipitation for the entire
forecast area. The upper level ridge has been expected to
amplify, and this time it looks like it will be sunny and dry
conditions, with high temperatures in the lower 50s for the
lower Snake River plain and Magic Valley, with overnight lows
getting colder with less cloud cover, eventually dropping below
freezing Thu night or Fri night. With the feature that passes
through at the end of the near term forecast, there will be some
post frontal wind that continues Wed and Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 443 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Snake River plain TAFs should be VFR for the day and at least
into the early evening before the next shortwave moving through
the mean upper level northwesterly flow arrives. At this time,
the risk of precipitation is light and temperatures will keep it
as rain. By the late evening, expect some marginal VFR. At most
just putting in VCSH.

For KDIJ, more problematic here. By 07/19z conditions should go
marginal VFR for CIG with showers in the area. By 21Z expect
RASN to start reducing VSBY to marginal VFR as well. Expect IFR
due to VSBY by 08/04Z or so.

KSUN remains in the precipitation shadow and will feel the least
impact from the RA/SN moving through. Perhaps some occasional
marginal VFR due to CIG in the evening hours, otherwise light
wind and VFR.

Wind may increase to around 15KT, at KPIH, KIDA, and KDIJ;
otherwise stay at or below 10KT.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...Messick