091
FXUS65 KPIH 060440
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1040 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms remain
  possible today. Snow levels may lower to around 6000 ft, but
  accumulations should remain light. Showers diminish this
  evening.

- Freeze Warning for the Snake Plain for tonight. The probability
  of a season ending Hard Freeze is higher than 50% for a large
  portion of the Snake Plain.

- Warming trend begins Tuesday and continues through the week.
  Precipitation may return by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Water vapor satellite imagery shows broad trough draped over the
Northern Rockies today. Secondary shortwave feature dropping
through East Idaho will keep isolated to scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms in place into the evening, with overall
precipitation amounts much lower than yesterday. Based on
temperature profiles, snow levels are expected to range
6000-8000 ft today. Any additional snow that falls today should
remain light and close to ridge tops, but a few stronger showers
could briefly drop snow levels to pass level and higher
elevation communities like Island Park. Showers are expected to
dissipate this evening as the last shortwave finally makes it
through the region.

Temperatures remain the story going forward through the early
portions of the work and school week. Clearing overnight along
with northerly flow will drop overnight lows to freezing or
below. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for the entirety of the
Snake Plain for tonight, and there is potential for many areas to
see a hard killing freeze. A quick look at a few locations shows
that the NBM deterministic is now running well above probabilistic
ranges. Have continued trend from previous shift to blend toward
lower percentile ranges. Any areas that do not receive a hard
freeze tonight will need another headline for Monday night with
temperatures at or slightly colder than tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Model ensembles and clusters continue to build temporary ridge
across the PacNW and Northern Rockies early in the week, but
shift that ridge axis into the Northern Plains by Wednesday.
This is in response to deepening trough along or just off the
coast. Increasing southwest flow by mid week will quickly help
moderate temperatures off the cold early part of the week back
towards seasonal normals. There are considerable differences in
the clusters with respect to shifting the Pacific low inland,
which has downstream impacts on returning precipitation to
East Idaho. For now, model means shift onset to Friday, with
the best chances arriving for the weekend. A slightly more
amplified flow looks to push temperatures to just above normal
by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Showers have largely concluded and dry conditions will persist
through late week. Clouds will continue to disperse overnight into
early Monday, with clear skies forecast by afternoon. While the
probability of fog formation is very low, there is potential
considering clearing, light winds, and cooling temperatures. The
National Blend probability of CIGs below 500 feet is less than
15% at KDIJ and near zero elsewhere.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Showers and isolated storms will begin to diminish after
sunset. We are seeing a mix of rain and snow especially across
higher elevations. Any precipitation amounts will be light, but
a quick burst of rain or snow is possible with stronger storms.
Otherwise dry conditions will persist most of the upcoming week.
Any real threat of precipitation, thunderstorms, and
potentially gusty winds will be next weekend. We COULD see
changes arriving as early as Friday, but likely holding off
until Saturday. A pretty strong area of low pressure develops
along the coast. Fairly strong southwest flow develops with this
pattern. As all or part of that low (depending on which model
you believe), the remnants of Priscilla in the eastern Pacific
are drawn into the flow and make a beeline for Idaho.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT Monday for IDZ051>055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...DMH