846
FXUS65 KPIH 041719
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1019 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low pressure passes to our north bringing some light
  precipitation today

- Gusty winds expected Tuesday

- Better chances of rain and snow from midweek onward cooler
  temperatures returning

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 108 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025

A low pressure system will pass just to our north today.
Precipitation will arrive from the northwest today but stall
across the Snake Plain this afternoon. Support with this system
is weak so the best chances for precipitation are mainly across
the upper Snake highlands and the central mountains. Rainfall
amounts with this system are light, generally around or less
than 0.10 inches in the lower elevations, perhaps as much as
0.25 around Stanley. Snow levels are high as well, likely above
7500 feet. Winds will be stronger today with most gusts in the
25 to 35 mph range today. Temps will be a few degrees above
normal with most communities expecting highs in the 50s today.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Wednesday looks to be the warmest day in the extended with upper-
level SW flow expected ahead of an approaching upper level trough.
Clouds will be on the increase over the course of the day with
precip moving into the central mountains by mid afternoon, then
reaching the rest of eastern Idaho by the late evening and overnight
hours into Thursday. Best moisture will be across the central
mountains but snow levels are quite high (8kft or so) so any snow
will be at and above mountain passes with very little rainfall
expected across the lower valleys in the Snake Plain or Magic
Valley. Colder air will filter in for Thursday with things mostly
dry outside of some lingering shower chances in the higher terrain
of the central mountains and eastern highlands. Temps will stay in
the 40s and 50s across the region however. These cooler temps will
linger into Friday while another system moves north of the region
once again sparking some rain/snow chances for the region. With
cooler temps in place this go-around, could get some snow into the
Stanley Basin and maybe around Island Park on late Thursday and into
Friday with rain expected below 6500 ft or so. Again, not a ton of
QPF with this feature either but should be enough for at least some
minor accumulations at and above pass level.

Things look to dry out as we head towards the weekend with models
and clusters showing increasing likelihood of ridging for the
weekend and into the first part of next week. NBM appears to be
lagging behind with this change from previous forecasts so massaged
things to show more clearing and lower PoPs than the NBM as this
pattern should result in drier weather and above normal temps for
the weekend and into the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1019 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025

Pockets of light rain or snow continue across the area this
afternoon, before lifting north tonight. Most areas are VFR and
we do expect that to continue. There is a LOW chance of dropping
to MVFR at a particular airport, but not enough to put into a
TAF at the moment. As the pattern shifts every thing briefly
north tonight and Wednesday morning, we will see VFR conditions.
Winds do ramp again mid to late morning tomorrow.
We should the chance of precipitation picking up tomorrow
afternoon at SUN.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...Keyes