441
FXUS65 KPIH 032019
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
219 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  continue through Monday, primarily each afternoon. Stronger
  storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, small hail,
  and brief heavy rain.

- Conditions will remain very dry outside of any showers or
  thunderstorms, with near normal to below normal temperatures
  expected through Tuesday.

- Critical fire weather conditions will remain possible this
  week due to scattered thunderstorms further north today and
  Monday, and gusty winds/low RH Monday through Thursday.

- Warmer temperatures will build in for Wednesday, trending
  cooler starting Thursday through next weekend as isolated
  showers and thunderstorms return further north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

WV satellite imagery shows well defined shortwave shifting northeast
through eastern WA/OR, crossing into the ID panhandle this
afternoon. Trailing moisture plume associated with feature just west
of the East Idaho forecast area, with broad shallow cumulus field
over most higher elevation areas in East Idaho. Radar just starting
to show some development as of 2pm this afternoon across portions of
the central mountains. Generally isolated thunderstorm activity
remains expected across the central mountains and Divide this
afternoon. Cannot completely rule out development across the
remainder of the higher elevation areas, but HREF chances drop off
significantly outside of the central mountains so confidence is low.
As with previous days, gust potential remains around 50 mph through
the evening.

More organized shortwave feature arrives for Monday, currently
visible on satellite west of OR coast. Track of this feature
continues to target the northern tier zones from the central
mountains east to the Yellowstone/Teton regions, but also
potentially impacting the northern portions of the Snake River
Plain. Outflow potential for Monday remains in the 45-55 mph
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A forecast without thunderstorms anywhere in East Idaho? Hard to
believe from the past couple weeks, but it finally looks like a dry
couple of days is on tap for the entire forecast area Tuesday and
Wednesday. A strong ridge of high pressure over the southern states
reaches into East Idaho, leading to dry conditions and a little bit
of a warming trend into mid week. Wednesday appears to be the
warmest day with lower elevation temps rebounding into the upper 80s
and lower/mid 90s. Another trough extends into the PacNW for late in
the week with a new series of shortwave features crossing across
East Idaho. Temperatures cool slightly with onset of breezy to
locally windy afternoons, but these features also bring a renewed
threat of daily convection. Ensemble clusters remain in relative
agreement on the passage of the trough Thursday/Friday.
Deterministic runs eject that trough into central portions of North
America for the weekend, but ensemble agreement breaks down. NBM
blend trends toward a return to drier and cooler conditions for the
weekend under influence of northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Isolated thunderstorms will largely remain away from terminals
again today, especially further east. HREF indicates up to
around a 30 percent chance of thunder at KSUN and have included
a tempo at KSUN from 02z through 06z for isolated thunderstorms.
Otherwise, have forecast VCSH only at all other terminals
beginning between 23z and 03z this evening, during which CAMs
show isolated showers working through the region. Any storms
will be capable of gusts to around 45 kts. Otherwise, expecting
wind gusts to generally remain under 20 kts this afternoon
before becoming light and variable again this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A series of shortwaves will keep isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through Monday, although activity will
be less widespread, focused primarily over the central mountains and
further east along the MT Divide. Thunderstorms will be capable of
producing gusts to around 45 mph and small hail. Outside of storms,
afternoon wind gusts will max out at around 20 to 30 mph. A Red Flag
Warning has been issued for Fire Weather Zones 410 and 413 tomorrow,
Monday, from 2 PM to 9 PM MDT due to the combination of gusty winds
and low relative humidities. Conditions will continue to trend drier
through Thursday as high pressure amplifies over the Southwest.
Afternoon and evening winds will also continue to run breezy and
therefore, we will continue to assess the need for RFWs day by
day.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM MDT Monday for IDZ410-413.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...Cropp