816
FXUS65 KPIH 161049
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
449 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow showers will taper off from west to east today.

- Drier weather is on tap for most of southeast Idaho Friday and
  Saturday, before our next, faster-moving storm system moves
  through the region Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 253 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Rain and snow showers will taper off from west to east today as
the responsible low pressure system pulls away from the region.
Portions of the southern/eastern highlands may see another 0.10
to 0.25 inches of rain. Cooler temperatures follow tonight,
with lows dropping to around freezing for many lower elevation
areas. As the growing season has concluded, no further frost or
freeze alerts will be issued until Spring.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Friday will feature conditions gradually improving across the area
as high pressure once again builds over the region, albeit briefly.
Will likely see some lingering clouds for the first part of the day
along with maybe some isolated/scattered precip chances in the
eastern highlands during the afternoon and evening hours; otherwise,
most of the region should be dry. Dry weather will continue into
Saturday regionwide with temperatures remaining on the cooler side
of normal. Sunday looks to be the warmest day in the extended with
60s likely in the lower elevations as winds increase out of the S/SW
ahead of an approaching upper level trough that will swing through
the region during the overnight and into the first part of the day
on Monday. When this happens, expect clouds and precip chances to
increase across the area Sunday evening and for a good part of the
day on Monday with MUCH cooler temps looking increasingly likely for
the day on Monday. Highs look likely to only top out in the 40s on
Monday throughout the area with widespread cloud cover and precip in
the forecast. Once again, expect some high elevation snow with this
feature, likely above 6000 ft. This system is forecast to be a quick
mover however and will likely be well east of the area by daybreak
Tuesday. The upper flow will remain out of the NW though which will
keep cooler air in place Tuesday and into Wednesday, about 5-10
degrees below normal, but those days do appear that they`ll be dry
at the present time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 449 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

The last organized round of shower activity associated with our
now-departing storm system is becoming better organized on
radar, and will impact KPIH, KIDA, and possibly KBYI this
morning before pushing east. KDIJ may see showers through this
evening. The main impact from this round is actually manifesting
as mist and low stratus, with guidance supporting KPIH and KIDA
remaining pretty socked in with predominant IFR cigs through
about 19z/1pm, give or take an hour or two. KDIJ may lean more
MVFR, but confidence is low on how this will evolve as showers
move in...these early-cold-season moist events can be tricky.
Meanwhile, skies will gradually clear and lift for KSUN (and
KBYI by later this morning), with breezy southwest winds still
expected up the eastern Magic Valley/Snake Plain corridor
through early evening. Given all of the recent moisture and
rainfall, some concern certainly exists for development of at
least low stratus tonight, but so far confidence in seeing
impacts at any TAF terminal is very low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Rain and snow showers will taper off from west to east today as
the responsible low pressure system pulls away from the region.
Expect a brief break with mostly dry conditions Friday and
Saturday, before our next trough brings another round of
precipitation to the region from Sunday afternoon through
Monday. Winds may be a bit breezier with this next system.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...01
FIRE WEATHER...01