467
FXUS65 KPIH 020438
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1038 PM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow Showers today with additional accumulations in southern
  and eastern mountains above 6 thousand feet. Winter Weather
  Advisories remain in effect through this afternoon.

- Light rain and snow showers continuing off and on through
  Friday.

- Dry weekend as temperatures warm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Plenty of rain and snow showers showing up on radar this afternoon,
especially in the Eastern Highlands and South Hills, though there is
at least some isolated activity almost everyone in our CWA. These
scattered showers will continue on and off through the afternoon
with another 2-3 inches of snow in the Eastern Highlands as a weak
low slowly moves eastward out of Idaho, so will let Winter Weather
Advisory continue. There`s even a 10 to 20 percent chance you hear a
rumble of thunder in the eastern half of the area today. Winds are
breezy this afternoon with gusts of 20 to 30 mph and some locally
stronger gusts of 30 to 35 mph around the eastern Magic Valley/South
Hills areas. On the back side of the low, look for some wrap around
moisture enhancement in the upper Snake River Plain and Eastern
Highlands early Wednesday bringing another 1-3 inches of snow for
theses areas and even some light snow (less than an inch) to the
Snake River Plain. We remain in an upper level trough through much
of this week, so look for more scattered showery activity on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be chilly Wednesday morning, in the
teens and 20s for most with some low stratus/patchy fog across parts
of the eastern Magic Valley, lower Snake Plain, and Wood River
Valley. Highs warm just a couple of degrees on Wednesday afternoon,
reaching the mid and upper 40s. This is a very slow start to our
warming trend that will get going a bit more in the extended
forecast. More on that below...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

As has been the case all week, the region will remain under the
influence of a broad upper trough over the Pacific NW. This will
keep things on the cooler side of normal with continued cloud cover
and isolated/scattered showers. Any precip looks disorganized
in nature and will be mainly focused across the higher terrain
of the eastern highlands and central mountains. Can`t rule
something out in the valleys but most spots will remain dry. The
pattern begins to change on Friday as ridging looks to build
over the region bringing in a warmer and drier period of
weather. Friday will be the first day where temps return closer
to normal (lower 50s in the valleys) with 40s still expected
across the higher terrain. More noticeable warming will occur
into the weekend as the ridge amplifies and this will keep
things precip-free and mostly sunny while temperatures return to
the 60s Sunday into Monday. Have seen some deterministic models
trend towards a weak trough swinging through the area on Monday
and NBM temperatures have nudged downward from previous
forecast accordingly but ensemble clusters continue to show this
as an outlier. It`ll be something to monitor nevertheless.
Either way, forecast still remains basically dry with above
normal temperatures, just how warm remains up for debate amongst
the models. Plenty of time to see how it all pans out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Probabilities have been consistent in the amount of risk, just
not in the exact timing. Showers are already moving in again in
the northwest flow, but the risk has been less than 10 percent
until somewhere around 02/10Z to 02/17Z when it spikes up to
just below 30 percent, but for some airdromes the CIG risk of
marginal VFR spikes much higher, such as KIDA--where there is
even a risk of IFR shortly before sunrise until shortly after,
around 02/14Z. KDIJ is at risk for some reduced VSBY due to
SHSN. The farther south, the less risk of impacted operations.
With afternoon heating, the showers and CIGs return by early
afternoon and last into the evening, shutting off between 03/00Z
and 03/02Z, depending on location.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...Messick