831
FXUS65 KPIH 150425
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1025 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued warming into Sunday afternoon, turning cooler for
  the first half of the upcoming week. Hotter by Thursday.

- Risk of thunderstorms each afternoon/evening Sunday through
  Tuesday in the Idaho-Montana border region.

- Breezy to windy Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

High pressure will remain in place during this time, although a
weak shortwave will push through southern Canada and trigger a
low chance of thunderstorms in the ID-MT border portion of the
forecast area for Sun afternoon. Little to no wind, and mostly
terrain-driven by slope-valley wind effect.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Dry and warm conditions should be in place for the majority of
the extended period. Trough oriented along the coast for Monday
should allow for increased moisture, with isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development mainly across higher elevations. Better
chances occur on Tuesday as the shortwave lifts through the
region. Slightly cooler temperatures occur early in the period,
but warmer temperatures redevelop for the remainder of the work
week as a weak ridge reestablishes itself. By the weekend,
models introduce a deeper low into the PacNW, which progresses
across the region for the weekend. There is a very wide range in
temperature outcomes by Saturday, with 10th percentile as low
as mid 60s and 90th percentile staying near 90. Interestingly,
the NBM does not yet develop significant precipitation coverage
for the weekend, held by both the GFS and ECMWF maintaining dry
south flow across the region. Changes possible? We`ll see how
this plays out over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Upper-level clouds will continue to build into eastern Idaho
out of the southwest overnight and throughout the day Sunday as
conditions remain dry. Light winds will return overnight ahead
of a diurnal increase during the daytime hours Sunday, with
gusts peaking around 15-25 kts. Any shower and thunderstorm
development for Sunday afternoon/evening looks to remain
confined to the Idaho-Montana border region north into Montana.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Dry weather is expected through the weekend. A weak system
passing to the north on Sunday will create afternoon wind gusts
of 20 to 25 mph in many areas through the weekend. Minimum
humidities Saturday and Sunday afternoon will generally be in
the teens to low 20s.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...MacKay
FIRE WEATHER...13