454
FXUS65 KPIH 120447
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1047 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated (virga) showers and thunderstorms this afternoon,
  mainly southern and southeast highlands. Isolated
  thunderstorms once again Wednesday afternoon.

- Wildfire smoke will continue to impact the area on and off for
  through Wednesday. Overall improvement is expected by
  Thursday.

- Major pattern change with showers and thunderstorms expected
  Thursday into Saturday with much more widespread coverage with
  significant cooling occurring as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Seeing showers and isolated thunderstorms again in the southern
mountains this afternoon and evening. May see a few elsewhere
but mainly not expected to reach the ground in lower elevations.
Expect a return of isolated showers and thunderstorms once again
Wednesday afternoon and evening again southern mountains as well
as central mountains so areas beginning to increase. Will start
to see some cooling Wednesday with highs mainly in the 80s to
lower 90s low elevations and 70s and 80s mountains. The
monsoonal moisture is really expected to push into all of
southeast Idaho Thursday on strong southwest flow aloft with
high precipitation chances both Thursday and Friday. Likely
precipiation amounts of 0.10 to 0.50 in the eastern Magic Valley
and Snake River Plain and 0.25 to 0.80 inches in high elevations
the most likely amounts. There are of course very low percent
chances of more at some high elevation locations on both days.
Will be much cooler Thursday and Friday with low elevation highs
in the 70s and mountains mainly in the 60s. Precipitation will
diminish Saturday but still widespread in the eastern
mountains, with only isolated coverage Sunday through next
Tuesday. Will start to warm to near normal temperatures by early
next week with mainly 70s mountains and 80s valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

An incoming surge of moist unstable air has developed and will
move significant moisture into southern ID during the morning.
This means mostly south to southwest air flow, and the same with
wind if not around the SHRA that will develop in the morning and
TSRA at all airdromes but KSUN during the afternoon. Increased
moisture should reduce smoke production, along with weaker wind
compared to wind on previous days.

The cloud cover should lower CIGs occasionally to mid-level
altitudes. No CIG impacts are expected for aircraft operations.
Same with VSBY as atmosphere is more unstable and therefore
better ventilation.

TSRA expected to develop around 12/19Z with the threat reaching
around 30 percent, so have continued the PROB30 groups and
continued them into the early evening. Again, no issues with any
CIG or VSBY impacts. Expect G40KT to G45KT from outflow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Winds look a little less today than yesterday even though
humidity levels are still low. Will hold off on red flag
warnings for today. Isoalted storms are possible across the
southern and southeast highlands today and on Wednesday.
Thursday is tricky if we`ll actually see enough thunderstorm
coverage to warrant a red flag warning and if we do the storms
may be too wet to start many fires. Something to monitor over
the next day or two.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GK
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...Cropp