Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
610 FXZS60 NSTU 090029 CCA AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 129 PM SST Wed Oct 8 2025 .DISCUSSION... Satellite imageries continue to show unstable conditions around and over the area. Thunderstorms, deep convections and gusty winds from time to time will likely remain over the area for tonight through at least Thursday. This is further supported by the data from the upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (09/00Z). A very moist surface to around the 800 mb level together with a solid thunderstorm probability signal reflects the current satellite imageries. Model data shows the trough to the east merging into the trough to the west and south, tonight. As the high pressure system to the south continues to migrate east, it`ll push the latter trough northward, as it turns the southeast winds eastward, as it pushes the first trough westward. These two features will merge and produce locally induced weather patterns that will peak tonight through Thursday. Hence, the flood watch will remain in effect for this time frame. By Friday, showers will slightly decrease as winds remain from the east at a moderate to fresh breeze. Also, model data show a mid level high pressure system holding a mid-level low pressure system south of the islands. By the new week, model solutions show a moist atmosphere, keeping showers and possible thunderstorm over the area. Overall, scattered to numerous showers, heavy at times with moderate to fresh east-southeast winds will remain for the rest of the forecast period. && .Marine... Observations of ocean conditions in the last couple of hours have shown a gradual build of seas to near high surf advisory thresholds. The moderate to fresh east-southeast winds with higher gusts together with thunderstorms in the area are likely elevating seas and surfs, especially for the southeast and east facing shores of all islands. Model data show seas peaking on Thursday night to around 8 to 10 feet through at least Sunday. As east-southeast winds are expected to remain around a fresh breeze through the rest of the forecast period, seas, surfs and rip currents are expected to be enhanced around this time frame. Thus, a small craft advisory remains in effect through at least the new week. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory Flash Flood Watch && $$ JTAllen