Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
449 FXZS60 NSTU 100105 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 205 PM SST Thu Oct 9 2025 .DISCUSSION... Model solution scenarios for the last couple of runs including the latest from this morning (09/18Z) continues to show a trough to the east-northeast and another trough to the south and west of the territory battling each other throughout the day. So far, the trough to the east-northeast seems to be dominating weather patterns as moderate to fresh easterlies holds the latter trough away from the islands. On the latest satellite imageries, based on the close proximity of the trough to the south, and the atmospheric profile from this afternoon`s (10/00Z) upper air observations (RAOB), there may be still an increased potential for thunderstorms and heavy showers from time to time, for tonight. Model data is showing the same trough weakening on Friday through at least Saturday, before re-developing on Saturday night. Once the trough re-develops, local weather patterns will be dominated by waves of passing showers across the territory, embedded within the easterly wind flow. Therefore, expect numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms and moderate to fresh easterlies for tonight, decreasing to scattered showers for Friday through Saturday. As the new week progresses, similar conditions will remain for the rest of the forecast period. && .Marine... The moderate to fresh easterlies remaining across the area for the rest of the forecast period will likely keep seas and surfs choppy and rough for this time frame. Observations from the PacIOOS buoys (near east of Aunu`u and west of Tutuila) show heights around 7 to 9 feet with short periods (<10 seconds), likely peaking at 10 feet from time to time. The short periods are an indication of wind-driven seas, and also, indicating a low to moderate risk of rip currents in the waters, especially the south to east facing shores. Additionally, with the trough axis just south and west of the territory, and more convections to the east moving westward, embedded thunderstorms may likely elevate seas and surfs nearby. Model data show these conditions remaining for this forecast period. Thus, will continue the advisories for high surfs and small crafts. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch Cancelled High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTAllen