


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
318 FXZS60 NSTU 160116 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 216 PM SST Wed Oct 15 2025 .Short term... Satellite imagery from this morning and early afternoon shows high pressure over the region to give a mix of sun and clouds over the American Samoa islands. However, a trough to the north is beginning to strengthen and is expected to move over the islands for Friday and this weekend. As the aforementioned high pressure begins to move further away from the islands on Thursday, winds are forecast to decrease to around 10 to 15 mph. More clouds are anticipated, compared to today, but the risk of passing showers remain in the scattered showers category (50% chance). By Friday, cloudy skies are expected as the trough moves closer to the region. The risk of showers are upgraded to numerous showers (70% chance). Easterly winds increase back to 15 to 20 mph overnight and into Saturday. By late Friday night through the weekend, the trough is forecast to bring widespread rainfall throughout the American Samoa islands. Cloudy skies are expected during this time. Winds may become east/northeasterly on Sunday, but higher gusts are possible. Confidence in above average rainfall during this time period is high. .Long term... For Monday into the middle of the week next week, we will monitor the location of the aforementioned trough. At this time, it is expected to be at least near the territorial islands. However, the trough is also expected to weaken. Easterly decrease to around 10 to 15 mph with more clouds than sun during the day. && .Marine... With the long fetch moderate to fresh easterly breeze, choppy elevated seas continue throughout the American Samoa coastal waters. Winds are anticipated to decrease to around 10 to 15 knots on Thursday and Friday, which may cause seas to ease to Small Craft Advisory levels. A trough is anticipated to move over the waters on Friday through the weekend. As this happens, seas are expected to build to 6 to 8 feet for Friday night through Saturday night before easing to 5 to 7 feet as the easterly breeze decreases. However, higher wind gusts are possible near potentially heavy rainfall throughout the entire weekend. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. && $$ LaPlante