Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
138 FXZS60 NSTU 040057 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 157 PM SST Wed Sep 3 2025 .DISCUSSION... A more concentrated line of clouds from the south-southeast continues to move across the territory throughout the day, increasing the potential for showers. These conditions are expected to remain over the islands through the overnight hours into the rest of the week, as fresh to strong south-southeast winds remain. A strong high pressure system to the south will continue to hold the aforementioned line of clouds and the trough to the north, merging over the area. The embedded showers within this wind flow together with the trough, will continue to hold moisture over the islands through the new week. Once the high pressure system exits to the east on Saturday night, winds will turn northeast as a low pressure system from the southwest moves closer to the islands. This low pressure system will continue to hold showers across the islands as it migrates southeast pulling in the trough over the area, and possible flash flooding conditions on Sunday. By the end of the forecast period, the low pressure system will have pulled most of the trough line southeast and away from the territory, improving conditions for this time frame. The main threats for this forecast period are the winds peaking at a strong breeze at higher and vulnerable locations, the increasing potential for flash flooding conditions and possible thunderstorms. In the meantime, expect scattered to numerous showers for tonight through at least the weekend. Additionally, expect cooler temperatures from the south-southeast for tonight. && .Marine... Seas have continued to build to more hazardous conditions in the last couple of hours and will build even further into the evening to overnight hours. This is due mainly to south-southeast winds expected to peak at a strong breeze over the area, tonight. Also noticable on the data from the PacIOOS buoys are the long periods that potentially produce higher surfs as waves get closer to shores, and generate strong rip currents. The large southwest to southeast swell generated by these fresh to strong winds will remain over the coastal waters through at least Sunday. This also aligns with winds briefly shifting northeast on Sunday while decreasing. By Monday, winds will decrease further to a more light and variable breeze. Therefore, threats of rough seas, dangerous surfs and strong rip currents will remain over the American Samoa coastal waters tonight through at least Sunday. The high surf and small craft advisories remains in effect. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTAllen