104
FXZS60 NSTU 260045
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
145 PM SST Tue Nov 25 2025

.Short term [tonight through Thursday night]...
Fair weather conditions with mostly sunny skies and light
easterly winds have been observed across American Samoa
throughout the day. However, a weak surface trough is observed to
the east, and a more significant upper-level disturbance is
observed to the west of the territory. These patterns will drive
the weather conditions for the remainder of the short term
period.

The surface trough to the east will slowly move towards the
territory with the low-level winds. This will increase rain
chances from isolated (<20%) to scattered (50%) tonight into
tomorrow. Winds should remain light with direction becoming
variable.

The upper-level disturbance to the west has produced heavy
rainfall near the Fiji island chain today and will slowly move
eastward towards the American Samoa Islands. This disturbance is
due to a strong mid and upper-level trough in the subtropical jet
stream. As the upper-level trough moves near the islands
Wednesday night through Thursday night, rainfall chances should
increase signifcantly, with a possibility for embedded
thunderstorms and flash flooding conditions. Surface winds are
expected to remain light and variable, but stronger gusts may
occur near heavy showers and thunderstorms.

.Long term [Friday through Tuesday]...
Flash flooding conditions are likely to persist through at least
early Friday. Pending on the exact positioning and strength of the
upper-level trough, increased rainfall may continue through the
weekend. Rainfall is forecast to return to average by early next
week. Winds are forecast to remain light throughout the long term
forecast period.

No tropical development is expected within 300 nautical miles from
American Samoa over the next 7 days.

&&

.Marine...
Light winds are holding seas below advisory levels, with wave
heights observed around 6 feet at Aunu` This will increase rain
chances from isolated (<20%) to scau buoy. With light winds
expected to remain, seas should remain near this level. However,
heavy showers and thunderstorms may lead to brief increases in
wind gusts and seas at times Wednesday night through at least
Friday.

A long-period north swell may slightly increase surfs and the risk
for rip currents along north-facing shorelines of American Samoa
this weekend. However, due to low combined wave heights, the
impact of this swell should remain well below High Surf Advisory
threshold.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

Barton