071
FXZS60 NSTU 130015
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
115 PM SST Sat Sep 12 2026

.Discussion...
A trough developing over the Samoa Island chain will linger in the
area through the upcoming week. This feature may bring an uptick
in showers beginning Sunday, although the risk for flash flooding
remains low. Latest satellite data doesn`t show an active trough
at this time. However, instability trends indicated by the GDI
suggest the potential for thunderstorm development within the
trough from Monday night through midweek.

Meanwhile, a high pressure system building from the southwest may
usher in breezy southeast winds tonight through Tuesday. As the
Islands lie between the trough and high pressure system, periods
of stronger winds are possible but below wind advisory
thresholds. By Tuesday night, the trough is forecast to track
slightly southwest before moving back over the territory. Model
guidance show the trough lingering in the area through the end of
the forecast period before exiting the region.

&&
.Marine...
Latest observations from the PacIOOS buoys show wave heights
around 4 to 6 feet. Relatively calm ocean conditions prevail, with
no significant winds observed. However, a northerly swell is
evident, with peak periods reported around 13 seconds. This
swell may produce slightly stronger rip currents for north-
facing shores, although surf heights are are expected to remain
below the High Surf Advisory threshold of 10 feet.

Nevertheless, model guidance suggests seas will build today as a
stronger swell from the south moves into the area. At this time,
wave heights are not forecast to reach Small Craft Advisory
criteria. However, models tend to underplay observed wave heights,
so conditions will continue to be monitored for the potential
issuance of an advisory through Sunday. Additionally, winds may
reach 20 knots Sunday as a high pressure system lingers nearby,
further elevating ocean conditions through midweek.

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None

&&

$$

TM