730
FXZS60 NSTU 150042
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
142 PM SST Sat Jun 14 2025

.Discussion...
Moisture associated with a trough to the north continues to
approach the territory. This trend is reflected in the latest
precipitable water satellite data, which shows increasing values
as the trough nears. Model data indicates that the strong
inversion seen in recent soundings is gradually lifting and is
expected to weaken by Sunday, coinciding with the trough`s
arrival. However, an uptick in showers may occur earlier, as
satellite imagery reveals shower cumuli ahead of the trough. These
clouds typically brings numerous showers, though the risk of
flash flooding remains low at this time.

By Sunday night, as the trough settles over the American Samoa
region, thunderstorms may develop. Numerous to widespread showers
are possible for this time through Monday, and the potential for
flash flooding could increase with thunderstorm activity. That
said, current model guidance suggests the trough may not be
particularly active, so flash flooding potential will continue to
be monitored.

Looking ahead, a gentle breeze and the presence of the trough will
persist through Tuesday. By Tuesday night, rainfall should begin
to taper off as a high pressure system builds near New Zealand.
However, this high doesn`t appear to be as strong as previously
forecast, which may result in the trough lingering slightly north
than earlier projections.

As a result, expect stronger trade winds, possibly increasing
Tuesday night and continuing through the rest of the forecast
period, along with passing showers embedded within the trade wind
flow due to the trough`s continued proximity.

&&

.Marine...
Wave heights remain near 7 feet as trade winds continue to
influence the region. Winds were initially expected to fall below
15 knots today; however, the latest model guidance now delays this
change until Sunday. Once winds diminish, wave heights are
expected to subside by Sunday night. Despite decreasing wind
conditions, lingering swells referenced in the previous forecast
may prolong the High Surf Advisory through Monday, though the
Small Craft Advisory will likely be dropped on Sunday.

By Tuesday, expect more textured seas as another round of trade
winds develops across the area.

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

TM