Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
482 FXZS60 NSTU 160052 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 152 PM SST Sat Jun 15 2024 .DISCUSSION... Overcast skies with light rain and isolated thunderstorms continued throughout the day from the last 16 hours. These conditions are associated with a surface trough moving across the territory as it dissipates. On the latest satellite imageries and upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (16/00Z), moisture still lingers over the area with thunderstorms likely. However, model solutions is showing the aforementioned trough being pushed north and west of the area by moderate to fresh (15 to 25 mph) easterlies produced by a high pressure system to the south by this evening. This easterly feature is expected to remain through at least Wednesday night, peaking at 30 mph on Monday. Models are also showing the aforementioned high pressure system migrating eastward, as another high pressure system to the southwest moves south of the area and bring moderate to fresh trades by the end of the new week. Nevertheless, long term model data shows a mid-level high pressure system remaining over the area throughout the forecast period. This mid-level high pressure system will keep dry and relatively cool conditions across the territory for the rest of the forecast period. Therefore, expect scattered showers with moderate to fresh easterlies for tonight. Possible thunderstorms with numerous showers for Sunday as embedded showers from the easterly flow moves across the territory. Brief passing showers with fresh east winds for Sunday night through midweek, turning southeast on Thursday through the remainder of the forecast period. No flash flooding conditions expected for the next 7 days. && .Marine... Seas have been observed to remain below advisory thresholds for the last few days. However, wave data reported from the PacIOOS Aunuu buoy show heights peaking at 8 feet with periods below 10 seconds. This is an indication of wind-driven waves. An easterly flow of moderate to fresh breeze (15 to 20 knots) together with thunderstorms in the area has contributed to the elevated conditions in the area. Hence, the advisory for small crafts remains in effect. No other significant swell is expected for this forecast period as model projects seas to remain around 5 to 7 feet for the rest of the forecast period. However, with winds likely peaking at strong breeze (25 knots) on Monday, seas and winds will build and increase, respectively, for this time frame. Once winds decrease by midweek, seas will also subside. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTAllen