Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
607 FXZS60 NSTU 050100 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 200 PM SST Sat Oct 4 2025 .Short term... [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...The trough that brought heavy rainfall this morning continues to diminish in the area (evident on satellite data). However, remnants of the trough is forecast to remain through Sunday. Expect numerous showers with an east breeze of 10 to 15 mph, though the potential for flash flooding with the trough is low due to a mid-level high pressure system suppressing any deep convection. By Sunday night, the aforementioned trough is anticipated to further weaken. This pattern will briefly downgrade showers to scattered and bring a gentle breeze through Monday morning. .Long term... [MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...However, another trough from the southwest will track northeast and over the Islands by Monday in the afternoon. Expect an uptick in showers to numerous or even widespread, which is uncertain at this time depending on how active it is. Will continue to monitor the trough as it is currently active over Fiji. && .Marine... Latest observations from the PacIOOS buoys show wave heights below 7 feet. Additionally, windspeeds have fallen below 20 knots. These observations suggest conditions have fallen below advisory levels and model data depicts these wave heights lasting through Tuesday. Although textured seas are possible with winds reaching 15 knots, the small craft advisory is now cancelled due to minimal threat over the ocean. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ TM