Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 160052
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
152 PM SST Sat Jun 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Overcast skies with light rain and isolated thunderstorms
continued throughout the day from the last 16 hours. These
conditions are associated with a surface trough moving across the
territory as it dissipates. On the latest satellite imageries and
upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (16/00Z),
moisture still lingers over the area with thunderstorms likely.
However, model solutions is showing the aforementioned trough
being pushed north and west of the area by moderate to fresh (15
to 25 mph) easterlies produced by a high pressure system to the
south by this evening. This easterly feature is expected to remain
through at least Wednesday night, peaking at 30 mph on Monday.
Models are also showing the aforementioned high pressure system
migrating eastward, as another high pressure system to the
southwest moves south of the area and bring moderate to fresh
trades by the end of the new week. Nevertheless, long term model
data shows a mid-level high pressure system remaining over the
area throughout the forecast period. This mid-level high pressure
system will keep dry and relatively cool conditions across the
territory for the rest of the forecast period.

Therefore, expect scattered showers with moderate to fresh
easterlies for tonight. Possible thunderstorms with numerous
showers for Sunday as embedded showers from the easterly flow
moves across the territory. Brief passing showers with fresh east
winds for Sunday night through midweek, turning southeast on
Thursday through the remainder of the forecast period. No flash
flooding conditions expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.Marine...
Seas have been observed to remain below advisory thresholds for
the last few days. However, wave data reported from the PacIOOS
Aunuu buoy show heights peaking at 8 feet with periods below 10
seconds. This is an indication of wind-driven waves. An easterly
flow of moderate to fresh breeze (15 to 20 knots) together with
thunderstorms in the area has contributed to the elevated
conditions in the area. Hence, the advisory for small crafts
remains in effect. No other significant swell is expected for this
forecast period as model projects seas to remain around 5 to 7
feet for the rest of the forecast period. However, with winds
likely peaking at strong breeze (25 knots) on Monday, seas and
winds will build and increase, respectively, for this time frame.
Once winds decrease by midweek, seas will also subside.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen