539
FXZS60 NSTU 150045
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
203 PM SST Fri Jun 14 2024

.DISCUSSION...
The latest satellite imageries show a surface trough to the east,
migrating westward. Clusters of thunderstorms and deeper
convections embedded within the trough are shown to move closer
to the Manu`a Islands. Both model (EC & GFS) solutions are
projecting this surface trough to increase the potential for
showers and thunderstorms for tonight through Saturday. As soon as
the aforementioned trough exits to the west, an easterly flow
will prevail bringing brief embedded passing showers over the
islands. Nevertheless, a more prevalent feature shown on model
data is a stationary mid-level high pressure system over the area.
This high pressure system will likely suppress any cloud growth
for the rest of the forecast period, preventing any flash flooding
conditions to occur. However, with models projecting an increase
in wind strength, this may potentially be a threat for the long
term forecast period.

Therefore, expect numerous to widespread showers, heavy at times
with embedded thunderstorms, and moderate to fresh easterlies for
tonight through Saturday night turning southeast on Sunday. Winds
will increase to a fresh breeze (~20 mph) by Sunday night peaking
at a strong breeze (~25 mph) by Monday with scattered showers for
the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
Manual observations for seas and surfs have been reportedly calm
for the last 24 hours. Model data is showing these conditions to
remain over the coastal waters for tonight throughout the forecast
period. However, with thunderstorms embedded within the surface
trough to the east, seas will likely elevate and winds becoming
gusty nearby. Additionally, with easterlies expected to
potentially reach strong breeze (~25 knots) by Monday, wind-driven
waves will likely stir up rough and choppy conditions over the
waters. Thus, an advisory for small crafts is now in effect for
tonight through the new week. Will continue to monitor conditions
as more data becomes available.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen