Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
575 FXZS60 NSTU 140101 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 201 PM SST Mon Oct 13 2025 .DISCUSSION... Showers passing through in waves have been observed throughout the day, despite the humidity keeping temperatures feeling a bit warmer. On the latest satellite imageries, the active portion of the trough remains east-southeast and northwest of the area, with the exception of the brief on and off showers passing through in the afternoon to early evening hours. These conditions are further supported by the upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (14/00Z) showing a conditionally unstable atmospheric profile with dry conditions at the mid-levels, and moist from surface to around 600 mb. This is telling of a 50 to 70% chance of showers remaining over the islands from time to time for the next 12 to 16 hours through at least Tuesday night. Expect scattered to numerous showers with a moderate to fresh easterly breeze remains over the islands for this time frame. By midweek, model data shows an increased potential for showers as the more active portions of the trough moves over the islands. Possible thunderstorms and flash flooding is expected for the weekend into the new week as the trough will likely remain in the area for the rest of the forecast period. Gentle to moderate east winds will return on Thursday turning southeast on Friday and then northeast on Saturday night. Will continue to monitor conditions as the week progresses. && .Marine... Observations of seas and surfs have remained favorable throughout the day-gentle to moderate southeast breeze with heights between 5 to 7 feet and periods less than 10 seconds. Model data is showing these conditions remaining for tonight. However, model data is showing a gradual build in seas starting on Tuesday through at least Wednesday, aligning with easterlies increasing to a fresh breeze. By Wednesday night, seas are expected to subside to more favorable heights as winds also decrease to a gentle to moderate east-southeast wind flow. Also shown on the latest model data is a long period northwest swell reaching coastal waters by this time frame. Although heights will be well below advisory thresholds (8 feet and/or 20 knots) by Wednesday night through the end of the forecast period, the long periods can enhance surfs and generate strong rip currents. Thus, the risk of rip currents remains at low to moderate for this time frame. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ JTAllen