Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
991 FXZS60 NSTU 030103 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 203 PM SST Tue Sep 2 2025 .DISCUSSION... The latest satellite imageries show an active trough to the north northeast of the islands, and a line of clouds embedded within the east wind flow moving across the territory. The NBM model data shows the two aforementioned features merging with mainly the line of clouds remaining over the islands and the active trough just north of the area. By Wednesday afternoon, models are showing the increased potential for showers over the area, and may likely prompt flash flooding conditions. These conditions will be monitored as more data becomes available. Models are showing the trough remaining over the area through the rest of the forecast period. The trough lingering over the area together with the high pressure system to the south will likely drive the majority of the local weather patterns throughout this period. Thus, expect scattered showers with moderat to fresh trades for tonight through Wednesday, becoming numerous Wednesday night. Winds will turn east by Thursday as the high pressure system continues to migrate east with increasing showers through Saturday night. By Sunday, winds will gradually turn northeast as a low pressure system to the south moves southeast, then turn north by Sunday night as it decreases to a gentle to moderate wind flow. Showers embedded within the wind flow will remain throughout the forecast period. && .Marine... Data from the PacIOOS buoys continue to show heights around 5 to 7 feet with periods increasing to more than 13 seconds long. The gradual build in seas will continue throughout the week, and peak on Friday through the end of the forecast period. High seas, surfs and rip current risk will be the main threats as a large south swell moves into the coastal waters for this week. Will issue more alerts as more data becomes available. In the meantime, the advisory for small crafts remains in effect. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTAllen