358
AXPQ20 PGUM 200027
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1027 AM ChST Thu Aug 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL CYCLONES...
Tropical Storm Saudel (17W) is currently centered near 10.9 degrees
north latitude and 152.5 degrees east longitude, which is about
240 miles north of Chuuk and 550 miles east-southeast of Guam. Saudel
currently has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, and is expected to
intensify over the next few days, possibly becoming a typhoon Friday.
Saudel is currently moving northwest at 16 mph. It is expected to turn
slightly toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed
through Sunday. The general forecast track takes the center of Saudel
near Pagan and Agrihan Saturday and Saturday night as a typhoon.

Torrential rain and isolated thunderstorms are found within 75 miles
of the center of Saudel. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
are found farther out associated with the monsoon trough.

For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the
National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough enters Micronesia near 22N130E then heads
southeastward to 11N143E then passes south of Guam on its way to
Tropical Storm Saudel near 11N153E then eastward to near 11N165E,
and finally east-southeastward to near 7N180 and beyond. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near and somewhat north
of Palau, Yap, Chuuk, Pohnpei, Kosrae and Majuro. The monsoon trough
is expected to show little change of intensity over the next few days,
but is likely to shift northward along with Saudel, especially near
Western Micronesia. This will involve the Marianas in the monsoon
activity once again, while probably lifting it north of Palau and
Yap once again also.

SURFACE TROUGHS...
A surface trough extending from subtropical invest area 96W (which is
well northwest of Wake Island) enters Micronesia near 25N164E then
heads southwestward toward 20N160E. It could then continue to near
Tropical Storm Saudel but becomes nebulous and stops producing
weather. This trough is forecast to show little change in either
intensity or location over the next day.

Another surface trough runs from 23N157E west-northwestward to near
25N150E and further west-northwestward. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found along the trough north of the
Marianas.

$$

Stanko