491
AXPQ20 PGUM 250023
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1023 AM ChST Tue Nov 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
The NET enters Guam`s AOR at 7N130E and extends southeast to a
weak/broad circulation near Kapingamarangi near 2N154E, exiting
Guam`s AOR at EQ162E. The models continue to struggle with where
and when additional circulations will form over the next few days.
However, the general theme is for the NET to remain quasi-
stationary over the next few days, possible interacting with
surface troughs in the trades and any circulation that develops.
This will allow at least widely-scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms to continue to develop along and near this feature,
as they are today.

SURFACE TROUGHS...
The surface troughs are modest in convergent signature today, but
there are a few of them. The first trough stretches from Nukuoro
near 4N155E to between Chuuk and Pohnpei, ending near 9N156E.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to develop
along this feature, which is expected to continue the next few
days as it heads west.

Next is a subtle trough passing over Kosrae (5N163E), extending
north from there, ending at 9N162E (southeast of Ujelang). Here
too scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing. A
similar convective coverage is expected the next several days as
it heads west.

Then, there`s a trough exiting Majuro, stretching from Ebon near
4N168E to alinglaplap near 7N169E. In a similar fashion, scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are developing, and this will
continue the next several days as it heads west.

Finally, another trough is crossing the Date Line, stretching from
Butaritari in the southern RMI, to 9N180. Cloud cover is more
widespread here, with scattered showers developing. Although no
thunderstorms are occurring, they are expected to develop later
today. This pattern will then continue as it heads west the next
several days.

TRADE-WIND SURGE...
A trade wind surge is centered between 9N and 20N, stretching from
150E to the Date Line and Beyond. Here sustained winds of 15 to 20
knots are common, with seas generally between 7 feet and 9 feet.
This surge will continue to gradually weaken the next few days.

TUTT...
Today, the TUTT enters Guam`s AOR at 17N180, extending southwest
to southwest of Kwajalein, ending near 6N617E. However, a piece of
the TUTT axis also branches west-southwest from 11N171E,
extending to 11N159E, where another "finger" extends southwest to
near Chuuk, ending at 7N153E. Here too, a branch of the TUTT
extends from 11N159E (where a cell may be trying to form) to a
cell at 10N148E, with the tail (or "finger") of the TUTT extending
southwest to EQ154E.

The net effect from this is widespread divergence is present from
145E to Chuuk, extending east to the Dateline along the southern
edge of the TUTT axes. The divergence is fairly modest though,
allowing convection to briefly approach -75 deg. C, indicative of
very localized heavy rainfall with convection along the northern
extents of the surface trough, generally between 7N and 11N. A
similar pattern will continue the next few days, as the TUTT axis
gradually extends west as it reorientates in a slightly more
east-southeast to west-southwest direction.

OTHER SYSTEMS...

SHEAR LINE...
Shear lines are plentiful today, with the first of such extending
from 18N eastward through Pagan in the CNMI to 17N180.

The next shear line branches off from the one just mentioned,
extending northeast from it at 17N150E, extending to wake Island,
exiting Guam`s AOR at 21N180.

Finally, a third shear line is seen from west of Iwo To at
25N140E, extending southeast initially to 22N145E, then
continuing east-northeast, exiting Guam`s AOR at 25N180.

Mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers are occurring near and
north of these shear lines, with some of the shear lines expected
to merge in the coming days.

$$

Doll