462
AXPQ20 PGUM 030031
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1031 AM ChST Sat Oct 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL CYCLONES...
Typhoon Choi-wan continues to slowly gain strength, with visible
imagery showing an eye forming. As of 10AM ChST and based on
visible satellite imagery, Choi-wan is centered near 18.6N 145.3E
and looks to be making a jog to the north, moving at 6 mph. This
forward speed is expected to increase slightly, with a turn to the
north-northeast expected by Sunday afternoon. Maximum sustained
winds have increased to 85 mph, and this will continue to increase
with the typhoon likely reaching category 2 strength by this
evening or tonight, strengthening further Sunday. The system has
become fully symmetric over the last 24 hours, allowing the system
to "cocoon" itself in moisture while having successfully fought
off the moderate northeasterly shear that was inhibiting its
growth previously. Based on the latest forecast track, Choi- wan
should pass very near the Maug Islands Sunday afternoon.

For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN32 PGTW and from the
National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ32 PGUM.

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
Invest 94W continues to meander just east of Kwajalein, with the
current estimated position based on visible imagery and model data
placing the circulation near 8.8N 166.5E. Convection is increasing
in coverage and strength, mainly across the northern semicircle
of the developing circulation. 94W also appears to have ingested
what was a broad circulation northeast of Majuro yesterday.
Conditions remain favorable for further organization as the region
features low vertical wind shear and very warm SSTs (Sea Surface
Temperatures). 94W will likely continue to have an erratic
movement in a quasi-stationary form the next couple of days while
it continues to organize, with increasing convective coverage a
good possibility.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough enters the AOR today at 15N130E and extends
east-northeast to Choi-wan near Agrihan in the northern CNMI. The
trough then extends east-southeast through a col at 18N160E,
turning more southeast to 94W, before continuing east-northeast to
exit the AOR at 10N180. The best concentration of convection
stretches from north of Yap into the Marianas where the monsoon
inflow is strongest, as sampled by the 00Z Guam RAOB which still
maintains a 50 knot gradient wind at 925mb (~1500 feet), with
Koror and Yap showing 25 to 30 knots respectively between 850mb
and 900mb. Otherwise, along the remainder of the trough, widely-
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are found along and
within 200 miles of the trough axis. This trough will continue to
get nudged northward for another day or two as Choi-wan moves
north-northeast, before ultimately settling back south somewhat
towards next weekend.

OTHER SYSTEMS... An area of moisture advection on the back side
of an area of high pressure centered between Chuuk and Pohnpei has
allowed scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop from
south of Chuuk to just west of Nukuoro and Kapingamarangi. This
process looks to continue over the next couple of days, with the
convection possibly making it into Chuuk, Polowat, Onoun, and
Fananu through Monday.

$$

Doll