214
AXPQ20 PGUM 310016
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1016 AM ChST Sat Oct 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL CYCLONES...
Typhoon In-fa remains a potent category 4 typhoon (barely
category 4) with very nice symmetry on visible imagery. It`s
continuing to move away from the northern CNMI. The latest
visible imagery has the center at 21.4N, 142.9E., or about 250
miles southeast of Iwo To. Maximum sustained winds have decreased
to 130 mph. In-fa is forecast to weaken through tonight. Typhoon
force winds extend outward from the center up to 80 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
165 miles. Maximum wave heights are 56 feet. In-fa is forecast to
weaken as it slows, possibly becoming quasi-stationary over the
next few days, before resuming a west-northwest or northwest
track.

For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the
National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough enters Guam`s AOR at 11N130E and extends east
to a col north of Koror at 11N135E, before turning northeast to
Guam, where it dives east-southeast to a col north of Chuuk at
12N151E. The trough then curls southeast to south of Majuro,
before turning northeast and exiting the AOR at 10N180. Convection
is fairly "spotty" (isolated with large gaps between areas of
convection), but is generally confined along and within 150 miles
to the south of the trough, with two main areas of convection.
The first area is north of Koror to near Yap, and the second area
is north-northwest of Pohnpei.

This trough looks to settle south over the next 48 hours or so,
stalling somewhere from Koror and Yap eastward (in a "wavy form")
through the FSM, likely from Chuuk and Pohnpei to north of Kosrae
to near Majuro. However, aside from a brief period in the 72 to
120 hour forecast range (days 3 through 5/latter half of next
week), the Galvez-Davison Index is pretty anemic for this time of
year with values <= ~35, indicating just isolated showers (at
best).

OTHER SYSTEMS...
A weak shear line enters the AOR at 18N130E, extending northeast
to a southward-moving circulation at 24N134E. Scattered showers
are found near the shear line, becoming numerous near the
circulation. These features will likely persist the next couple of
days with a similar convective behavior as the circulation
continues to slowly drop south.

$$

Doll