253
AXPQ20 PGUM 030046
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1046 AM ChST Mon Nov 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL CYCLONES...
The center of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi is now located west of 130E,
moving west at 20 mph. Although Kalmaegi is no longer within the
Guam AOR, convection associated with the system is seen to the east
of the center to around 131E from 9N to 11N. Also, a feeder band into
Kalmaegi is seen farther north, extending east from 13.5N130E to end
near 13N134E. This convection and feeder band will continue to move
west as Kalmaegi makes its way toward the Philippines.

For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the
National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM.

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A weak circulation, Invest 90W, is found to the southeast of Guam,
west-northwest of Weno, Chuuk at 8.9N 147.8E. This circulation is
newly formed along the monsoon trough. Isolated to low-end scattered
showers are seen with this circulation between 8N and 12N. 90W is
expected to drift west over the next couple of days as it slowly
consolidates, beginning to move off to the west-northwest Tuesday or
Wednesday.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough enters the region just east of Kalmaegi near
10N130E, extending east-southeast to Invest 90W, then continues east
to end near 9N153E. Monsoonal flow is producing scattered showers
with a few thunderstorms mainly south of Palau and Ngulu to the
equator. Farther east, southwest of Yap Proper to Weno, Chuuk,
convection within the monsoon flow is being enhanced by the upper-
level divergence south of the far southwest end of the TUTT. This
interaction is producing widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms from south of Sorol to just west of Weno, between 2N
and 8N. The monsoon trough looks to remain quasi-stationary with
an increasing surge to the south of the trough. The area of
widespread convection is expected to drift west as the TUTT and
associated divergence drifts west.

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A broad, weak trade-wind trough is found just north and east of
Pohnpei and over Kosrae, extending northwest from near 1N169E to end
near 10N158E. Scattered showers are seen over western Pohnpei State
with this trough. The trough looks to slowly drift west as it
continues to weaken over the coming days.

Another trough is found east of the Marshall Islands, extending
north-northeast from a weak circulation centered near 5N173E to end
near 8N177E, Spotty showers are seen with this trough. The trough
and circulation look to drift west over the next couple of days, with
the circulation continuing to weaken.


TRADE-WIND SURGE...
A trade-wind surge is evident on the latest ASCAT analysis extending
west to near 153E. The surge is seen between 16N and 25N from around
170E to 153E. East of 170E, the surge reaches southward to 12N and
reaching as far as 8N east of the Marshall Islands. The surge is
interacting with a broad area of upper-level divergence east of the
TUTT to generate scattered to numerous showers and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms from 153E to 176E between 12N and 22N.
This includes Wake Island.

TUTT...
The TUTT enters the area north-northwest of Wake Island near 25N163E,
extending southwest to a TUTT cell centered near 15N154E, then
continues southwest to end near 10N141E. A broad area of divergence
east of the TUTT is interacting with a trade-wind surge to produce
scattered to numerous showers from 153E to 176E between 12N and 22N.
This includes Wake Island. Farther south, strong divergence south of
the far southwestern end of the TUTT is enhancing convection south of
the monsoon trough. The TUTT, TUTT cell and associated divergence is
expected to drift west over the coming days with little change in
intensity.

OTHER SYSTEMS...
A weak shear line is seen over the northwest portion of the AOR,
entering the area just west of Iwo To near 25N141E, extending
southwest to beyond 130E near 19N. Spotty showers and thunderstorms
are found just south of the shear line with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms seen just north of the shear line. The shear
line will drift slowly east over the coming days with little change
in intensity.

$$

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