627
AXPQ20 PGUM 140054
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1054 AM ChST Fri Aug 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A broad, weak circulation, Invest 92W, is centered N of Kosrae near
8.7N 161.7E, within broad troughing extending SE from N of Weno,
Chuuk to beyond the Equator near 175E. 92W is moving slowly W. It
remains sub-low, meaning no development is expected over the next
few days. Scattered to numerous heavy showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found along and S of the trough and circulation
from Pohnpei E, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
found near Weno. Invest 92W will continue to move WNW over the
coming days with little or no change in intensity. The trough looks
to strengthen a bit over the coming days and the monsoon trough may
reestablish farther S along this trough over the next week or so.

A more organized circulation, Invest 93W, is centered S of Iwo To
near 22.3N 140.7E and is moving ENE. 93W is rated high and is the
subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert by the Joint Typhoon
Warning Center (JTWC), meaning development into a significant
tropical cyclone is likely within the next 24 hours. Satellite shows
a compact Low-Level Circulation Center (LLCC) with increasing
convection near the center. The latest ASCAT analysis shows fresh to
strong winds around the circulation with stronger winds seen a bit
farther S in the monsoonal flow. Conditions remain favorable for
development of Invest 93W, with weak vertical wind shear, good
upper-level outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. This has been
a favored location for development of weak, short-lived tropical
cyclones moving NE. Convection associated with Invest 93W extends S
to around 18N. Convection is expected to increase as Invest 93W
moves NE and slowly strengthens.

For more information on Invest 93W, please see bulletins issued by
JTWC under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW and WTPN21 PGTW.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough enters the region near 25N130E, extending ESE to
Invest 93W, then turns NE to beyond 25N near 151E. Most of the
convection along the trough is found with Invest 93W. However, a
monsoon surge, found a little farther S between Invest 93W and a
high pressure ridge found SW of Yap, is producing a band of numerous
heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms well W of the Marianas.
The monsoon trough looks to slowly weaken over the coming days,
possibly reestablishing farther S over the next week or so.

SURFACE TROUGHS...
A surface trough seen to the N of Invest 92W extends NNE from 92W to
end E of Wake Island near 19N170E. Scattered showers are seen to the
SE of Wake Island. The trough looks to continue moving W over the
next few days with no change in intensity.

A second trough is seen ESE of Minamitorishima extending S from near
24N162E to end near 20N161E. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found with this trough. the trough looks to move
ENE over the next few days, strengthening as it interacts with a
band of convergence NE of Wake Island.

$$

Kleeschulte