053
AXPQ20 PGUM 280050
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1050 AM ChST Tue Jul 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL CYCLONES...
Tropical Storm Dolphin is seen to the N of the Marshall Islands,
well SE of Wake Island, centered near 13.1N 172.8E. Dolphin is
moving W at 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph, with
tropical storm force winds extending up to 100 miles N of the center
and zero miles S. Dolphin is expected to make a turn toward the WNW,
then NW over the next few days as it continues to strengthen.
Dolphin could become a typhoon within the next 24 hours. Dolphin is
only expected to produce secondary affects across portions of
eastern Micronesia as it moves closer to Wake island. Residents of
Wake Island need to monitor the progression of Dolphin, as it is
expected to strengthen into a significant typhoon over the next
couple of days, possibly as strong as Category 5 Super Typhoon as it
passes S of Wake Island. Numerous to widespread heavy showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found within 100 miles of the center,
with scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms found
within feeder bands 120 miles to 280 miles N through NE of the
center and 140 to 220 miles SE through S. If Dolphin makes a more NW
turn toward Wake Island than expected, it could become a very
dangerous situation for the island.

For more information on TS Dolphin, please refer to bulletins by the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and by the
National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends E from a weak circulation near 10N130E to
another weak circulation SSW of Guam near 10N145E. It then continues
E to ENE into TS Dolphin. The trough then turns ESE to cross the
Date Line near 10N. Scattered showers are seen with the first
circulation, and S of the monsoon trough across Palau and S of Yap
Proper. With the second circulation S of Guam, patches of scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are found surrounding the
circulation, with more extensive showers found S of the trough
covering most of the region between Yap Proper and Weno, Chuuk from
10N to the Equator. Only spotty showers are found along the trough
from Weno to Pohnpei. From E of Pohnpei, across Kosrae and
Kwajalein, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found in
the monsoon flow S of the trough. The last area of convection
associated with the monsoon trough is found in the S flow near the
Date Line from 8N to the Equator. The monsoon trough, W of 157E,
looks to remain quasi-stationary over the coming days with little
change in intensity. E of 157E, the trough will be pulled a little
farther N as TS Dolphin moves WNW over the next few days. The
influence of the trough over eastern Micronesia will gradually
diminish as Dolphin progresses.

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A trade-wind trough extends N from the weak circulation SSW of Guam
to end over the far northern CNMI near 9N145E. Convergence near and
W of the trough is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near and W of the Marianas and northern CNMI. The
trough will continue to move W over the next few days, maintaining
convection as it progresses. This trough could strengthen slightly
as it moves across the Philippine Sea.

Another trade-wind trough is seen NE to E of the northern CNMI,
extending N from near 19N154E to beyond 25N near 155E. Convergence
associated with this trough is generating scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms near and E of the trough. This
trough looks to continue to move W over the next few days with
little change in intensity as it progresses.

$$

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