279
AXPQ20 PGUM 160106 CCA
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1106 AM ChST Wed Sep 16 2026

Corrected grammatical.

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL CYCLONES...
Tropical Depression 24W continues to meander east of Saipan, with
satellite imagery suggesting the LLCC is near 15N148E, with
movement suggesting a westward drift near 2 knots. 24W is in a
somewhat favorable environment with warm SSTs and low vertical
wind shear, but, it`s flanked by dry air to the northwest through
north. This has limited poleward outflow aloft, likely helping
inhibit development to an extent. With that said, some gradual
strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours as it lifts
north-northeast, strengthening further through the remainder of
the week as it gradually turns more northwest. At this time, only
the far northern remote islands of the CNMI look to be at risk
for any passage, mainly near or a little south of the Maug
Islands.

For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the
National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

MONSOON TROUGH...
Today, the monsoon trough enters the AOR at 13N139E, extending
east-northeastward to TD 24W. It then turns east-southeast,
passing through a col at 13N160E, then through Bikini Atoll,
before linking up with a circulation just east of Majuro near
8N172E, before turning northeast and exiting Guam`s AOR at 10N180.
The main area of convection is located south of the trough axis,
generally from Palau through Yap. It then continues curving northeast
to just east of the Marianas. However, as 24W lifts in a general
northward motion tonight, some of this convection could back-build
across the Marianas, due to increasing convergence as 24W possibly
becomes a tropical storm.

Otherwise, scatterometer data shows mainly 10 to 15 knot winds
south of the trough axis (locally higher near convective areas and
near 24W. In general, the trough looks to remain quasi-stationary
through early next week, locally modulated by 24W and the Majuro
circulation.

SURFACE TROUGHS...
A surface trough extends northeast from 24W to near Minamitorishima.
Fairly robust shower and thunderstorm development is occurring along
this trough, with cloud top temperatures exceeding -80 deg. C,
indicating locally heavy rainfall is occurring. This trough will
likely persist and move north to northwest with 24W over the next
several days.

$$

Doll