514
AXPQ20 PGUM 060047
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1047 AM ChST Mon Oct 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL CYCLONES...
Tropical Storm Halong is now out of the Guam AOR, centered near
26N142E (about 60 miles north of Iwo To), moving northwest at 5 mph.
Convection associated with Halong remains south of 25N, with numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms found north of 23N between 140E
and 145E. Halong is expected to move west-northwest over the next
couple of days as it increases forward speed and intensifies.

For more information on TS Halong, please refer to bulletins issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN32 PGTW.

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
Invest 95W is centered near 12N150E, with a trough extending west-
northwest to end near 14N140E, passing just south of Guam. Another
trough extends east-southeast to end north of Weno, Chuuk. 95W is
moving northwest toward the Marianas. It is struggling to maintain
itself and has become less organized over the past 24 hours.
Convection associated with 95W is found south of the center, with
scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms found from
just south of Eauripik, Satawal and Puluwat to around 11N. All of the
convection is found north and west of Weno. Invest 95W is expected
to continue to move toward the Marianas over the next couple of days,
with little, if any, change in intensity.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

TRADE-WIND AND SURFACE TROUGHS...
An elongated surface trough extends south-southwest from TS Halong,
crossing 25N near 142E through a weak circulation centered near
16N136E to end at a second weak circulation northwest of Palau
centered near 10N130E. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are found in a band of convergence east of the trough from 18N to
24N. Only spotty showers are found along the remainder of the trough
and with the weak circulations. The trough and weak circulations are
expected to drift west as TS Halong continues to move northwest over
the next few days.

A surface trough extends east-northeast from near 4N159E to end just
north of Kwajalein near 10N169E. Low-level convergence over the
region, along with moderate upper-level divergence, are interacting
with the trough to produce scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms across Kosrae and Pohnpei from 2N to just south of
Ujelang. This trough will gradually turn more west-northwest over the
coming days, with little change in intensity. However, the
convergence looks to weaken and the trough is expected to move away
from the influence of the upper-level divergence resulting in
decreased convection with the trough.

A weak trade-wind trough is seen well east of the Marianas,
extending northeast from near 13N150E to end well west of Wake Island
near 19N158E. Patchy to isolated showers and thunderstorms are found
along the trough. This trough looks to move northwest over the
coming days as it slowly weakens and possibly dissipates.

TUTT...
The TUTT enters the area near 25N170E, extending southwest to end
at a weak TUTT cell centered near 10N150E. Divergence with the TUTT
is generating scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms across Wake Island between 17N and 21N from 160E to
171E. The TUTT cell is is only showing a very minor influence on
convection east of Invest 95W. The TUTT is expected to drift west
over the coming days with the TUTT remaining relatively unchanged
while the TUTT cell is expected to dissipate.

...ITCZ...
The ITCZ has become fragmented and very weak as the aforementioned
surface trough over eastern Micronesia pushes the ITCZ northward. The
ITCZ extends east from near 11N168E to beyond the Date Line near 11N.
Only spotty showers and thunderstorms are found along the decaying
ITCZ. The ITCZ is expected to continue to weaken over the next couple
of days. The ITCZ may reestablish itself farther south around
midweek.

$$

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