133
AXPQ20 PGUM 110024
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1024 AM ChST Sat Oct 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A trade-wind trough stretches from 12N137E to 20N136E. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are developing along this feature,
as it gets enhanced lift from a nearby TUTT. This convective
coverage/behavior is expected to continue in a similar manner as
it heads west the next few days.

Another trade-wind trough west of the Marianas stretches from
14N140E to 20N144E. Here too the trough is getting increased
ascent from a TUTT with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
continuing to develop as it heads west, with a similar convective
coverage expected the next several days as it heads west.

Farther south and east, a trough in the trades stretches from
southwest of Kutu near 5N153E extending northwest through western
Chuuk State, before ending south of Guam near 11N145E. Widespread
cloud cover with scattered to locally numerous showers and
embedded thunderstorms are occurring, and they`ll continue to
develop as the trough heads west the next several days.

TUTT...
The TUTT enters Guam`s AOR at 20N180 and passes through a col east
of Wake Island at 20N171E before connecting to a cell south of
Wake Island at 14N166E, extending west to a weaker cell at 16N133E
before exiting Guam`s AOR at 20N130E. This TUTT axis is much
farther south than usual, allowing for fairly widespread
divergence to aid in convective development along the ITCZ.
Scattered to locally numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms
are also developing near the cells.

Looking forward through the middle of next week, the cell south of
Wake Island will head northwest through the northern CNMI by
Tuesday, with a new cell crossing the Date Line to a position
south-southeast of Wake Island by the middle of next week. This
will allowing the deformation axis to lift northward slightly, as
will its associated convection.

...ITCZ...
The ITCZ stretches northeast from near Kutu 5N153E to near Wotje
at 9N170E, before turning east-southeast, crossing the Date Line
at 9N. MIMIC water vapor imagery suggests PWATs of ~2.4 inches
or higher straddle most of this convergence zone (slightly lower
in a few locations). This is allowing fairly widespread convection
to develop in a few areas along the ITCZ, with it (the
convection) being more widely-scattered in others.

The models suggest a circulation will develop near Chuuk during
the next 48 hours and then lift northwest towards Guam, dragging
the western half of the ITCZ northwest with it as a "hybrid
inflow" region to the circulation, with the remainder of the ITCZ
continuing to weaken across Eastern Micronesia with little
convective development along it by the middle of next week.
However, it may still linger in the wind fields.

$$

Doll