932
AXPQ20 PGUM 240124
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1124 AM ChST Mon Aug 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL CYCLONES...
The tropics remain active, as Typhoon Saudel (17W) continues to
be a fairly strong typhoon, as maximum sustained winds are 125
mph, with gusts likely reaching near 145 mph. Saudel is well west-
southwest of Iwo To, and continues to move away from there as it
heads towards southern areas of Japan.

At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Typhoon Saudel was
located near Latitude 23.5 degrees North and Longitude
137.2 degrees East. Saudel is moving west-northwest at 17 mph. It
is expected to maintain this general course with a slight
decrease in forward speed through Tuesday.

Further south, we have Tropical Depression 19W, which is located
well north-northwest of Yap/west of the Marianas. 19W continues to
remain asymmetric with most convection ties to the south through
west flanks of the storm. This system is fighting some
respectable wind shear, helping limit it`s strengthening
potential. This looks to continue to be the case as it heads
north-northwest over the next few days.

At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 19W
was located near Latitude 14.4 degrees North and Longitude
136.8 degrees East. 19W is moving north at 5 mph. It is expected
to maintain this general course with an increase in forward speed
through Tuesday.

For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center under WMO headers WTPN31 PGTW and WTPN33 PGTW
and from the National Weather Service under WMO headers WTPQ31 PGUM
and WTPQ33 PGUM.

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
Much further east-southeast towards the RMI and Majuro, we have a
couple of areas that we`ve been watching, as has been the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). This area has shown persistent
areas of showers and thunderstorms, with sharp curvature in the
streamline analysis, and broad circulations at times. The main
region "most at risk" for any potential development looks to be
from between Ujelang and Kwajalein in the RMI northeastward to
near 18N175E (halfway between Wake Island and Majuro but slightly
east of that mid point). Here, wind shear is low with very warm
SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures). We`ll continue to monitor this
region for any further development.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

MONSOON TROUGH...
Today, the monsoon trough enters Guam`s AOR near 20N130E and
extends east-northeast to Saudel. It then extends southeast
through the northern CNMI near Pagan to a weak circulation south-
southwest of Bikini Atoll/west of Ujae in the RMI near 9N165E. The
trough then extends east, exiting Guam`s AOR near 9N180. South of
the trough axis, southerly winds near Majuro become southwest to
west the further west one goes. Scattered shower and isolated
thunderstorm development is found near and south of the trough,
locally higher in the areas mentioned above from near Kwajalein
northeast to 18N175E. The trough looks to remain quasi-stationary
over the next several days. Additionally, the two months long (or
more) cross-equatorial flow will allow for elevated surf
conditions to persist through the weekend for south facing reefs
of Kosrae and Majuro, probably longer.

$$

Doll