511
AXPQ20 PGUM 060051
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1051 AM ChST Fri Mar 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
JTWC Invest 95W is still broad circulation, embedded in the near-
equatorial trough, as it steadily shifts west-northwest. Latest
visible satellite imagery suggest the center is around 6N145E with a
trough extending north-northeast from the center to the east-
southeast of the Marianas. Convection has started to increase closer
to the center, but overall convection is still broadly disorganized
across the disturbance, with scattered to numerous locally heavy
showers and isolated thunderstorms found mostly north and east of the
circulation and along the trough extending from the center, through
the outer islands of Yap and western Chuuk State and ending east-
southeast of the Mariana islands. Scatterometer data shows 15 kt
winds around the broad circulation with pockets 25 to 30 kt well
displaced from the center and within the heavy convection. As of this
morning, Invest 95W is still rated "sub low" for development,
meaning that significant development into a tropical cyclone
(tropical depression) is very unlikely over the next couple of days.
Invest 95W is expected continue to move west-northwest over today
and Saturday days with little to very slow development. The heaviest
convection likely remaining north and east of the center of Invest
95W, especially as it starts to interact with a shear line dropping
southward towards the Marianas this weekend. This will likely to
heavy rainfall, breezy winds, choppy seas, and stronger gusts across
the Marianas, especially in heavier showers and thunderstorms. Sunday
onward, uncertainty on the evolution of Invest 95W is high and will
depend on how it interacts with the shear line.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
The NET enters the region near 5N130E and extends eastward, passing
south of Palau and then through the embedded tropical disturbance,
Invest 95W, near 6N145E. The NET then turns south-southeast and dips
south of the Equator near 150E. Besides for the convection already
associated with 95W, satellite imagery shows a band of numerous,
locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms south of Palau,
within the northwest to west flow south of the main trough axis. The
NET is expected to slowly be lifted northward as Invest 95W continues
west-northwest and tries to organize within the NET. This is
expected to increase showers and thunderstorms across Palau and Yap
this weekend into early next week, though the disorganization nature
of the convection may lead varied rainfall across the area. Gusty
winds could occur at areas the experience the heaviest convection
within the NET.

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has fragmented into a series
of weak trade-wind troughs between Pohnpei and Kosrae and continuing
into the Marshall islands near Kwajalein, with additional troughs
found between Majuro and the Date Line. Spotty to scattered showers
can be found to west and east of Kosrae, and across the Marshall
Islands near Kwajalein and surrounding atolls, while gentle to
moderate trade winds extend across the area. As these trough continue
to move westward across the region, they will bring periods of
scattered showers to Pohnpei, Kosrae, and the Marshall Islands,
mainly south of 10N.

OTHER SYSTEMS...
A shear line enters the region from a cold front, with the leading
edge of the wind speed gradient extending through northern islands
of the Marianas near Anatahan, and then exiting the region near
16N130E. Visible satellite imagery shows two bands of broken cloud
cover, one along the southern wind speed gradient near Anatahan,
where sustained winds increase from 10 to 15 kt to 15 to 20
kt, and the second along another gradient in the winds north of
Agrihan where winds increase from 15 to 20 kt to 20 to 25 kt. Spotty
to scattered showers are likely occurring along these cloud bands.
Altimetry shows seas are around 10 to 14 feet along and north of the
shear line, increasing to 15 and greater north of 25N. This shear
line is expected to continue southward towards Guam, Rota, Tinian,
and Saipan this weekend, likely interacting with tropical
disturbance, Invest 95W, increasing the potential for heavy rainfall,
breezy winds, choppy seas, and stronger gusts across the Marianas,
especially in heavier showers and thunderstorms.

$$

Schank