Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPQ20 PGUM 302206

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
806 AM ChST Thu Dec 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.




The near equatorial trough passes just south of Mindanao then enters
Micronesia near 5N130E. The circulation that was present here and the
subject of an invest area from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has
dissipated and is no longer suspect. The trough heads east-southeast
to end at EQ151E. Moderate convection is found south of the trough
well south of Yap and north of the trough near Palau and Yap.

Three shear lines are detected within Micronesia this morning. The
first runs from 3N171E to 2N155E to 2N147E. The weak convection from
this shear line is being blown toward the west by the trade winds, so
this shear line is weakening.

A second shear line curves from 19N180 to 16N177E to 13N168E to
13N160E to 17N153E to 17N144E to 14N130E. Moderate convection is found
along and up to 120 miles north of the shear line, including Wake
Island and the CNMI north of Anatahan. This shear line is still
moving southward, so is not weakening yet.

A third shear line cuts across the northwest corner of the discussion
area, from 25N136E to 22N130E. Extensive low clouds and patchy showers
are found north of this line to beyond 25N. This shear line is also
still moving southward and is not weakening yet.

The near equatorial trough is expected to show little movement or
change in intensity.

The first shear line is expected to continue weakening and drifting
westward and southward with the trade winds. It is becoming fragmented
and diffuse, and will soon no longer be discernible as a separate

The second shear line will show little change of intensity while still
moving southward. This will affect Guam and Saipan around Friday

The third shear line will show little change of intensity while still
continuing to move southeastward. If the second shear line stalls, the
two shear lines could possibly interact. By that time the second one
would be weakening.


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