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AXPQ20 PGUM 080012
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1012 AM ChST Sun Feb 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
The weak circulation that we`ve talked about the past few days
remains the same, a broad and very weak circulation with no
appreciable convection near the circulation. This morning, the
circulation has moved slightly west to near 4N142E. None of the
models develop this feature as it continues to edge west the next
few days.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
A NET-like feature enters Guam`s AOR near 8N130E and extends
southeast through Koror to 2N145E, turning more east-southeast to
EQ154E where it ends. West-northwesterly flow is noted south of
this feature. This feature is also providing great surface
convergence in the trade flow, allowing for pockets of scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop near it and to its
south. This Net-like feature is forecast to retreat southwest and
flatten out in 72 to 84 hours, when it`ll resemble more of a true
NET. Until then, a similar convective behavior is expected to
continue.

SURFACE TROUGHS...
A subtle surface trough extends northwest from the circulation
mentioned above near 4N142E, ending just west of Yap near 9N137E.
Along and east of this feature, PWATs increase to near 2.5 inches
(locally higher), which is allowing for a somewhat narrow zone of
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop from the
circulation to Yap. This will continue the next few days as both
the circulation and the trough continue west.

Another surface trough continues to make a slow westward progress,
with it being centered between Pohnpei and Kosrae this morning,
extending north from 1N160E to 5N160E. This feature has great
surface convergence along it, allowing for moisture to pool as
PWATs surge into the 2.7 to 3 inch range. Additionally, MIMIC
water vapor imagery shows a broad circulation is trying to form
along it near 3N160E. These interacting features are allowing for
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop under
widespread cloud cover. This is expected to continue the next
several days as it heads west.

Finally, the surface trough that was east of Majuro yesterday has
largely dissolved, with no appreciable bend in the streamline
analysis noted this morning and a lack of convection present in
satellite analysis.

OTHER SYSTEMS...

The weakening shear line mentioned yesterday near Wake Island has
completely dissolved.

However, a cold front has entered the region and stretches from
near Minami Torishima where it enters Guam`s AOR at 25N155E,
extending southwest to 16N130E. Widespread clouds with numerous
showers are occurring north of this feature, with winds
increasing into the 15 to 25 knot range. Here, seas of 6 to 9
feet are common.

Finally, a narrow zone of surface convergence in an east-west
fashion stretches from Majuro due east to the Date Line. Along
this feature, scattered to locally numerous showers are
developing. The models haven`t latched onto this and given that
it`s a new feature, movement the next few days is hard to predict,
but overall little movement is expected.

$$

Doll