482
WWPQ82 PGUM 010215
SPSPQ2

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1215 PM ChST Thu Oct 1 2026

PMZ161-171-172-020300-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-
1215 PM ChST Thu Oct 1 2026

...INCREASING WINDS, SEAS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS CHOI-WAN STRENGTHENS NEAR THE MARIANAS...

The latest forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and
numerical guidance continues to strengthen Tropical Storm Choi-Wan
(26W) as it crosses the Marianas sometime this weekend, possibly
stalling or slowing to a crawl as it does so, becoming a typhoon by
the end of the weekend. Choi-Wan is then forecast to turn north and
accelerate somewhat during the early to middle portion of next week
while it continues strengthening, possibly into a major typhoon.

As all of this occurs, the west to southwest monsoon flow already
encompassing northern Palau (mainly near Koror) and western Yap State
will continue strengthening, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots
possible. Strong moisture pooling near the trough axis combined with
at least decent surface convergence should foster increasing shower
and thunderstorm coverage and intensity as we head into the weekend
and early next week. Current indications are for 3 to 6 inches of
rainfall, locally in excess of 8 inches being probable for northern
Palau and western Yap State. This could lead to some minor flooding
concerns and landslide potential, especially near Koror where the
steeper terrain is juxtaposed with the strong moisture pooling and
surface convergence.

As the winds increase, and Choi-Wan strengthens, seas and surf will
also increase. This could lead to hazardous conditions for the
northern reefs and potentially for small craft traversing the waters.

Residents across northern Palau and western Yap States are encouraged
to continue to follow forecast trends at www.weather.gov/gum and on
social media.

$$

Doll