293
FXUS66 KPQR 221753 AAA
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
953 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

...Updated aviation, marine, public, and watches/warnings/advisories
sections...

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather under higher pressure continues through
late Saturday with another round of fog and frost development
expected tonight into Saturday morning. A pattern shift early
next week will favor a wet week for the upcoming holiday.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...The Dense Fog Advisory across interior lowland
valleys has been cancelled. Based on surface observations and
webcams, visibility has risen above one quarter of a mile across
most interior lowland valleys. Some locations may still experience
patchy dense fog, however, conditions should improve by 10-11 AM. If
driving in fog this morning, slow down, use your low beam
headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.     -10

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday...Fog should lift by around 10-
11 AM this morning. Low stratus across the Willamette Valley will
likely remain throughout the day and struggle to dissipate. This is
due to the lack of mixing and a relatively strong inversion aloft
keeping the clouds low. High level clouds above this low stratus
deck will also prevent daytime heating from breaking up the low
stratus. A weak weather system slowly approaches the region today
which will bring increasing precipitation chances along the north
Oregon and SW Washington coast tonight. The cold frontal system will
bring a widespread band of light rain tonight into Sunday,
transitioning into showers Sunday afternoon/evening and continuing
through Monday afternoon. Rain amounts with the Saturday through
Monday system will be around 0.25-0.95 inches along the coast and
Coast Range, 0.15-0.35 inches for inland locations, and 0.25-1.00
inches over the Cascades. Snow levels remain above Cascade pass
level through Sunday, then they will begin falling Sunday night
behind the cold front, falling to 2500-3000 ft by Monday morning.
However, as conditions will be showery by this point, limited snow
accumulation is expected at pass level, generally less than 2
inches. Winds are not expected to increase much with this system
with gusts up to 30 mph along the coast Sunday during the day and
over the Cascades Sunday night, remaining less than 20 mph for
inland valleys. The start of next week, mornings again are expected
to be on the cooler side even with widespread cloud cover. Monday
night into early Tuesday is expected to be dry with another night of
colder temperatures in the 30s across the interior lowlands. By
midday Tuesday, widespread precipitation chances increase again as
ensemble guidance members indicate the first in a series of back to
back frontal systems move through the region. Current guidance has
an active weather pattern continuing through the remainder of the
week. Exact timing details remain uncertain this far out, but
limited impacts are expected at this time.

Probability for 2 inches of rain in the 72 hour period from 4
AM Tuesday to 4 AM Friday is 5-10% for inland lowlands, 15-30%
chance south of Highway 20 in Oregon, and 40-75% chance north of
Highway 20. 3 inches of rain over the same 72 hour period are
less than 10% for inland lowlands, 10-20% chance south of
Highway 20 in Oregon, and 20-45% chance north of Highway 20.
Given that these system will be warm, snow levels will rise
above pass level. Looking beyond Thursday, ensembles indicate
yet another weather system could bring additional rain on Friday
into Saturday. Keep an eye on the forecast if you have holiday
travel plans!        -42/10

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure will remain in place through at least
12z Sunday, resulting in calm winds and an expansive/persistent low
stratus deck with cigs in the 200-700 foot range across the entire
Willamette Valley. With high clouds moving in from the west over the
top of this stratus deck, combined with a low sun angle this time of
year and little to no mixing, now expecting this stratus deck to
remain in place through today and tonight with no significant
clearing. Cigs in the mid to late afternoon will most likely range
between 500-700 ft, before lowering back to 200-300 ft towards 03z
Sunday. This is also when surface visibilities will likely lower to
1/4 to 3/4 SM at all inland terminals, aside from KTTD which may see
relatively higher surface visibilities. While unlikely, KEUG and
KTTD may attempt to scatter out very briefly towards sunset, however
stratus/fog would fill right back in within a few hours even if this
does occur. In summary, expect LIFR to IFR flight conditions for all
inland terminals through at least 12z Sunday. After 12-15z Sunday, a
front will begin moving inland, bringing light rain and increased
mixing to the area. This will eventually help lift fog and cigs,
with flight conditions improving to IFR or MVFR. That said,
confidence is low regarding the exact timing cigs/visibilities will
lift Sunday morning. Meanwhile, coastal terminals will most likely
experience a mix of IFR/MVFR cigs throughout the TAF period with
relatively higher surface visibilities.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect low stratus to remain in place through
at least 12-15z Sunday, with cigs hovering between 200-700 ft
(highest from 21z Saturday-01z Sunday, lowest from 02-12z Sunday).
By 03-06z Sunday, fog will likely redevelop with surface
visibilities lowering to 1/2 SM or lower. There is a 20-30% chance
surface visibilities will fall to 1/4 SM or lower. By 15z Sunday, an
incoming front will bring light rain and increased mixing. This
should help scour out fog and allow cigs to lift to IFR or low-end
MVFR thresholds, however the exact timing this will occur is
uncertain.      -23

&&

.MARINE...High pressure over the area is maintaining fairly stable
conditions with minimal change expected through Monday. Seas
currently range from 10-14 ft at 14-16 seconds and are expected to
slowly subside towards 9-12 ft by Monday. Seas are expected to fall
below 10 ft around Monday afternoon and will persist through at
least the middle of the upcoming week. On Sunday a frontal system
will move over the waters causing winds to increase from the south
with gusts up to 25 kt. Low pressure will move inland by late Sunday
into Monday, allowing winds to shift to the northwest.     -23/42

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...An energetic westerly swell is expected along
the northwestern Oregon and southwestern Washington coasts through
Monday. Seas 10-14 ft at 14-16 seconds are forecast through the the
weekend, resulting in a high sneaker wave threat. These energetic
waves can run significantly farther up a beach than normal,
including over rocks and jetties, creating potentially life-
threatening conditions in the surf zone when beachgoers can be
unexpectedly knocked off their feet and pulled out into cold ocean
waters.

A Beach Hazards Statement has therefore been issued through 10 AM
Monday. Caution should be used when in or near the water, and
beachgoers with children should be especially watchful. Never turn
your back on the ocean, and be sure to keep an eye on the waves.
Those participating in razor clam digs should additionally exercise
caution.       /42

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday for PZZ210-251>253-
     271>273.
&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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