354
FXUS66 KPQR 021533 AAA
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
732 AM PST Sun Nov 2 2025

Updated short term forecast and PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

.SYNOPSIS...Conditions trend drier through today but this
reprieve won`t last long. The next round of rain moves into the
region Monday morning as a compact surface low develops
offshore and passes quickly through the PacNW. Another brief
break is expected for much of Tuesday before the pattern really
ramps up. A broad trough sets up over the northeastern Pacific
and PacNW with several lows and associate cold fronts traverse
the area. Wednesday and Thursday will see moderate rain with
gusty south winds 35 to 45 mph inland.

&&

.UPDATE...Areas of dense fog have developed early Sunday morning
across portions of the Willamette Valley, Portland metro, lower
Columbia, Cowlitz Valley and Coast Range valleys. Dense Fog
Advisories have been issued where webcams, satellite and surface
weather observations show the most widespread fog. These advisories
are in effect until 11 AM PST Sunday. If you need to commute this
morning in the aforementioned areas, slow down when driving through
dense fog and allow yourself some extra time.  -23

&&

.DISCUSSION...Now through Friday...Residual moisture and a weak
upper level disturbance passing over the area is supporting
light scattered showers. Showers are expected to dissipate
sunday morning as surface high pressure builds into the area
from the southwest. This transient area of high pressure will
support mainly dry conditions through Sunday with winds
shifting from westerly to northerly Sunday night as a thermal
trough forms over western OR.

Confidence has increased for a quick moving low supporting by a
shortwave trough to move through the PacNW on Monday. Exact location
and strength of the low is still uncertain but rainfall is expected
to be on the lighter side compared to recent storms. Totals Monday
morning through early Tuesday in the Willamette Valley and around
the Portland metro are expected to be between 0.25-0.50 inches.
Along the coast and Coast Range, totals closer to 0.50-0.75 inches
expected and in the Cascades and Cascade Foothills, expect 0.75-1.0
inches.

Models continue to show good agreement in the large-scale synoptic
pattern that sets up by mid-week with a broad upper level trough
over the northeast Pacific and PacNW. The smaller scale features
such as surface low location and intensity along with embedded
shortwaves vary among the models and their ensemble members. There
is also agreement that their will be two distinct surges of moisture
into the PacNW, one Tuesday night through Wednesday and another late
Thursday into Friday. Exact intensity and duration vary but IVT
values generally peak close to 750 kg/ms for both surges with a drop
to less than 250 kg/ms between the two surges Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. GEFS and ECMWF ensembles both point the the first
surge lasting 12 to 15 hours (IVT between 500 and 750 kg/ms) while
the second surge is slightly shorter at 9 to 12 hours for the same
IVT values. The peak of the second surge could be slightly higher
than the first, possibly above 750 kg/ms but this would be short
lived at less than 3 hours. In short, 48-60 hours of rainfall, with
2 periods of potential heavy rain and a 6 to 12 hour period of
relief from heavy rain in between. Given the prevailing southerly to
southwesterly flow during this system, orographic enhancement will
be modest, keeping rainfall rates limited. While no flooding
concerns are currently anticipated for rivers or urban areas, there
is still low to moderate confidence on forecasted rainfall rates, so
continue to monitor these discussion updates.

This system also brings the potential for elevated winds, with
current guidance suggesting a 40-60% chance of wind gusts exceeding
35 mph on Wednesday and Thursday for the inland areas. Additionally,
for notably impactful wind gusts around 45 mph for inland areas,
guidance suggests a 10-20% chance for Wednesday and Thursday.
Friday, there is moderate agreement between ensemble clusters that
the overall pattern will turn zonal. Beyond Friday, there is little
agreement between clusters regarding pattern, strength, or
timing.  -19

&&

.AVIATION...Radar imagery and terminal observations as of late
Saturday evening depicts scattered showers entering the coast with
predominately VFR conditions across the region. Expect these
scattered showers to enter the central and northern Willamette
Valley around 06-09z Sun, while the southern Valley remains mostly
clear. A moist low level surface will support low stratus
development early Sunday morning across the Valley. Guidance
suggests a 40-60% chance for IFR/MVFR CIGs across the Valley
between 13-18z Sun. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR with
clearing skies as daytime heating progresses after 18-19z Sun.
Light and variable winds overnight turn more northerly to
northeasterly around 5-10 kt in the afternoon.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions through the TAF
period, with a 30-50% chance for IFR/MVFR CIGs between 13-18z Sun.
Light and variable winds under 5 kt overnight, turning more
northerly Sunday around 4-7 kt.  -10

&&

.MARINE...Winds have decreased significantly Saturday afternoon
behind the cold front. West to northwest winds are expected to
remain below 15 kts. A long period westerly swell 17-19 feet at
15-17 seconds moved into the waters this morning, supporting
hazardous seas conditions. The swell will slowly ease this
afternoon back to the low teens by this evening. A Hazardous Seas
Warnings remains in effect through 8 PM PDT this evening across
all coastal waters.

While brief high pressure passes overhead Sunday into Monday,
winds will become more variable by midday Sunday before turning
north to northeast as a thermal trough forms over the coast, which
could cause a brief period of increased winds late Sunday.
Seas are expected to remain around 10-12 ft at 13-14 seconds
through much of the period. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued
for 8 PM PDT this evening through 4 PM PST Monday.

The middle of next week will see the return of an active pattern
as a couple of frontal systems could cause strong Gales or even
Storm force winds along with increased seas. Looking at 24 hour
probabilities, there`s over 90% chance of Gales (gusts > 34 kts)
in the far outer waters on Tuesday then spreading over all of the
coastal waters for Wednesday and Thursday. The probability for
Storm Force gusts (> 55 mph) is around 25-50% chance each day
Tuesday through Thursday. Looking at 3 hour probabilities, we see
two waves of elevated winds with a 40-60% chance of Gales Tuesday
evening into early Wednesday and again on Thursday, with these
probabilities staying elevated along the inner waters in between.
For Storm force gusts, the probability is around 10% for each
wave. Seas are also expected to increase, with mainly wind driven
seas pushing into the mid to upper teens by Wednesday. There is
still plenty of uncertainty in exact details but the active
pattern is expected to persist.  -03

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A westerly swell of 11-14 ft at 14-15 seconds
will bring a high threat of sneaker waves through Monday along the
North and Central Oregon Coast, and the South Washington Coast.
Caution should be used when in or near the water. Always keep an
eye on the waves, and be especially watchful of children and pets.
Those participating in razor clam digs should exercise caution.

A couple mid to lake week systems may bring another high threat of
sneaker waves to the North and Central Oregon Coast and the South
Washington Coast late Wednesday into at least Friday. Depending
on swell height and period, conditions may warrant a High Surf
Advisory for some time. This potential will continue to be
monitored in future forecasts.-19/10

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for ORZ104-105-
     108-109-114-117-118.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for WAZ202-204.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ210-251>253-
     271>273.
&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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