624
FXUS66 KPQR 250448 AAA
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
948 PM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...A wetter and more active pattern returns from
Sunday through much of the next week as multiple systems bring
repeated rain chances with continued near-normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Now through Saturday...Dry weather today will give
way to wetter conditions Sunday as a closed upper low and its
associated surface low slowly track onshore and fill over the
north Oregon coast through the first half of the workweek. There
is strong consensus that rain along the cold frontal boundary
will spread southward along the coast overnight, then push
inland to the Willamette Valley through Sunday morning. Behind
the initial rain band, scattered to numerous post-frontal
showers Sunday evening will linger into early Tuesday before
trending drier. The break from rain showers may be brief as
another shortwave tracks overhead late Tuesday, followed by yet
another upper low from Wednesday through the remainder of the
workweek. While rain is unlikely to persist through this entire
period, these systems will bring repeated chances for rain at
the end of what has been an unusually dry October in the Pacific
Northwest. Ensemble mean 48-hour rainfall totals from 5 AM
Sunday through 5 AM Tuesday are 0.75-1.50 inches, with the
reasonable high-end amounts of 1.5-2.5 inches also likely
insufficient to support any flooding concerns. Snow levels
falling to around 5000 ft will allow for light accumulations in
the Cascades above pass level through Wednesday, with
accumulations to lower elevations possible later in the week.

Temperatures through the period will remain near seasonal
norms, namely afternoon highs in the low 50s to low 60s and
overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Increased cloud cover
will help limit the threat of freeze or frost conditions until
late next week when there is a chance of clearer overnight
skies allowing for colder temperatures. -36

&&

.AVIATION...Through 06Z Monday...Currently VFR conditions and
high clouds throughout the airspace. While VFR conditions and high
clouds will likely persist through the TAF period, coastal
terminals will begin to see deteriorated MVFR conditions around
08-12Z Sun as a frontal system arrives. Specifically, expect rain
to arrive at KAST by 07-09Z Sun and KONP by 11-13Z Sun, and at
inland terminals by 13-18Z Sun (from north to south). During this
system, probabilistic guidance suggests a 30-60% chance of MVFR
conditions and a 10-20% chance of IFR conditions at most terminals.
Otherwise, expect light and variable winds tonight to become
south to southeasterly and increase to around 5-10 kt inland by
12-18Z Sun and 10-15 kt with gusts up around 20-25 kt along the
coast by 09-12Z Sun. Chances of MVFR conditions decrease toward
the end of the TAF period but deterministic guidance still shows
the possibility of MVFR conditions lingering beyond 03Z Mon at a
few terminals. Based off how the models are trending, there is
improving confidence that conditions will improve back to VFR by
03Z Mon, but not enough confidence to include at every terminal in
the TAFs.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR conditions high clouds, and
light and variable winds until around 15Z Sun as a frontal system
arrives. As the frontal system arrives, expect rain and a 30-60%
chance of MVFR and 10-20% chance of IFR conditions. Southeasterly
winds around 5-10 kt develop around 12Z Sun ahead of the incoming
front. Chances of MVFR conditions decrease toward the end of the
TAF period but deterministic guidance still shows the possibility
of MVFR conditions lingering beyond 06Z Mon. ~12

&&

.MARINE...A slow-moving and steadily weakening area of low
pressure will traverse waters late tonight into Sunday, causing
winds to back out of the south with gusts approaching 25 kt and
seas building towards 8-10 ft. Small Craft Advisories therefore
remain in effect, with staggered onset times through this
evening and tonight as hazardous conditions spread from
northwest to southeast. While winds and seas are most likely to
subside by Monday afternoon, there is a 30% chance that another
system approaching the waters midweek will yield conditions
hazardous to small craft. -36/42

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ210.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ251.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for
     PZZ252-272.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for
     PZZ253-273.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ271.
&&

$$

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