485
FXUS66 KPQR 020136
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
636 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...Updated public and beach hazards discussions, and the
watches, warnings, and advisories section...

.SYNOPSIS...The cold front continues to move southeast through
the  region this afternoon, bringing areas of rain and breezy
conditions. The front is now situated roughly across the middle
portion of the forecast area and will continue to shift inland
and past the Cascades through the evening. Winds are gradually
weakening behind the front, though occasional gusts up to 20 mph
will persist across inland valleys, with stronger gusts of 25
to 35 mph through the Columbia River Gorge and 20 to 30 mph mph
in the Cascades. Conditions will trend drier into Sunday as
ridging builds overhead. Active weather is expected to return
late Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

...EVENING UPDATE...The Flood Warning for the Grays River near
Rosburg has been cancelled. The Grays River has crested and
fallen  below minor flood stage. -10

&&

.DISCUSSION...Now through Friday...Rain continues to taper off
this  afternoon as the cold front slowly progresses southeast
through the region. The front is no longer stalled as the
associated surface low has lifted northeast toward Vancouver
Island, allowing a gradual eastward push of the boundary. Over
the past 24 hours, from Friday afternoon through Saturday
afternoon, rainfall totals have ranged from 1.0 to 1.75 inches
north of McMinnville, 0.50 to 1.00 inches between McMinnville
and Albany, and less than 0.50 inches south of Albany. As for
the coast, 24 hour rainfall totals range from 1.5 to 3.0 inches,
with the highest amounts likely in elevated areas. Additional
rainfall through early Sunday morning is expected to bring
another 0.10 to 0.25 inches at the Coast, Coast Range, and
Willamette Valley, and 0.50 to 1.25 inches across the Cascades
and Cascade Foothills.

Winds continue to ease this evening with the fronts departure.
Expect occasional gusts up to 20 mph inland, while the Columbia
River Gorge may still see 25 to 35 mph, and the Cascades around
20 to 30 mph through tonight.

Sunday will be mostly dry as shortwave ridging builds overhead,
bringing a temporary break from the recent active pattern.
However, this dry period will be brief as a shortwave trough
bringing moisture into the region as early as Monday afternoon.

Model ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement
through midweek, depicting a broad upper trough developing over
the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday. This feature, often
classified as an atmospheric river, is expected to last 48-60
hours, delivering two distinct surges of moisture - one late
Tuesday night into Wednesday and another early Thursday. Each
period will see moderate IVT values around 500-750 kg/ms lasting
less than 24 hours, separated by a 6 to 12 hour period of weak
atmospheric river IVT values (less than 500 kg/ms). In short,
48-60 hours of rainfall, with 2 periods of potential heavy rain
and a 6 to 12 hour period of relief from heavy rain in between.
Given the prevailing southerly to southwesterly flow during this
system, orographic enhancement will be modest, keeping rainfall
rates limited. While no flooding concerns are currently
anticipated for rivers or urban areas, there is still low to
moderate confidence on forecasted rainfall rates, so continue to
monitor these discussion updates. This system also brings the
potential for elevated winds, with current guidance suggesting a
40-60% chance of wind gusts exceeding 35 mph on Wednesday and
Thursday for the inland areas. Additionally, for notably
impactful wind gusts around 45 mph for inland areas, guidance
suggests a 10-20% chance for Wednesday and Thursday. Friday,
there is moderate agreement between ensemble clusters that the
overall pattern will turn zonal. Beyond Friday, there is little
agreement between clusters regarding pattern, strength, or
timing. ~12

&&

.AVIATION...The cold front that brought widespread rain to NW
Oregon and SW Washington has moved over the Cascades as of 22z
Sat with scattered showers continuing behind the front through
12-15z Sun. Conditions behind the front have improved to VFR
except for some coastal locations near and south of KONP that
will have lingering MVFR/IFR/LIFR cigs and visbys through 23z
Sat to 00z Sun. Winds have also decreased rapidly with most
locations expected to have west to southwest winds less than 10
kts through the rest of the TAF period. The only exception is
breezy winds continue over the Cascades through 06z Sun as the
front continues to move over them.

There`s a 40-60% chance of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visbys due to
low stratus forming in the Willamette Valley between 12-16z Sun.
Conditions are forecast to drop first in the central and
southern  Willamette Valley, followed by the northern
Willamette Valley and SW Washington I-5 corridor later in this
time period. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR by 18-21z
Sun.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions expected.
Scattered showers continue through 12z Sun. West winds less than
10 kts becoming southerly after 06z Sun. There`s a 40-60% chance
of MVFR/IFR cigs and visbys after 13-15z Sun, improving to VFR
by 18-21z Sun.   -03

&&

.MARINE...Winds have decreased significantly Saturday afternoon
behind the cold front. West to northwest winds are expected to
remain below 15 kts. A long period westerly swell 17-19 feet at
15-17 seconds moved into the waters this morning, supporting
hazardous seas conditions. The swell will slowly ease this
afternoon back to the low teens by this evening. A Hazardous
Seas Warnings remains in effect through 8 PM PDT this evening
across all coastal waters.

While brief high pressure passes overhead Sunday into Monday,
winds will become more variable by midday Sunday before turning
north to northeast as a thermal trough forms over the coast,
which could cause a brief period of increased winds late
Sunday. Seas are expected to remain around 10-12 ft at 13-14
seconds through much of the period. A Small Craft Advisory has
been issued for 8 PM PDT this evening through 4 PM PST Monday.

The middle of next week will see the return of an active pattern
as a couple of frontal systems could cause strong Gales or even
Storm force winds along with increased seas. Looking at 24 hour
probabilities, there`s over 90% chance of Gales (gusts > 34 kts)
in the far outer waters on Tuesday then spreading over all of
the coastal waters for Wednesday and Thursday. The probability
for Storm Force gusts (> 55 mph) is around 25-50% chance each
day Tuesday through Thursday. Looking at 3 hour probabilities,
we see two waves of elevated winds with a 40-60% chance of Gales
Tuesday evening into early Wednesday and again on Thursday,
with these probabilities staying elevated along the inner waters
in between. For Storm force gusts, the probability is around
10% for each wave. Seas are also expected to increase, with
mainly wind driven seas pushing into the mid to upper teens by
Wednesday. There is still plenty of uncertainty in exact details
but the active pattern is expected to persist.    -03

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A westerly swell of 11-14 ft at 14-15 seconds
will bring a high threat of sneaker waves through Monday along
the North and Central Oregon Coast, and the South Washington
Coast. Caution should be used when in or near the water. Always
keep an eye on the waves, and be especially watchful of children
and pets. Those participating in razor clam digs should
exercise caution.      -10

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210-
     251>253-271>273.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PDT Monday for PZZ210-251>253-
     271>273.
&&

$$

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