560
FXUS66 KPQR 221024
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
224 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather under higher pressure continues through
late Saturday with another round of fog and frost development
expected tonight into Saturday morning. A pattern shift early
next week will favor a wet week for the upcoming holiday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday...Visible satellite imagery
along with ground observations shows dense fog across the
Willamette Valley this morning. Much like yesterday, expect this
fog to lift and become low level clouds. Saturday overall is
expected to be mostly a rinse and repeat of Friday. A weak
weather system slowly approaches the region today which will
bring increasing precipitation chances along the north Oregon
and SW Washington coast. As Saturday progresses, the cold
frontal system will bring a widespread band of precipitation
inland by Saturday evening through Sunday, precipitation will
become showery Sunday afternoon/evening and continuing through
Monday afternoon. Rain amounts with the Saturday through Monday
system will be around 0.25-0.95 inches along the coast and
Coast Range, 0.15-0.35 inches for inland locations, and
0.25-1.00 inches over the Cascades. Snow levels remain above
Cascade pass level through Sunday, then they will begin falling
Sunday night behind the cold front, falling to 2500-3000 ft by
Monday morning. However, as conditions will be showery by this
point, limited snow accumulation is expected at pass level,
generally less than 2 inches. Winds are not expected to increase
much with this system with gusts up to 30 mph along the coast
Sunday during the day and over the Cascades Sunday night,
remaining less than 20 mph for inland valleys. The start of next
week, mornings again are expected to be on the cooler side even
with widespread cloud cover. Monday night into early Tuesday is
expected to be dry with another night of colder temperatures in
the 30s across the interior lowlands. By midday Tuesday,
widespread precipitation chances increase again as ensemble
guidance members indicate the first in a series of back to back
frontal systems move through the region. Current guidance has
an active weather pattern continuing through the remainder of
the week. Exact timing details remain uncertain this far out,
but limited impacts are expected at this time.

Probability for 2 inches of rain in the 72 hour period from 4
AM Tuesday to 4 AM Friday is 5-10% for inland lowlands, 15-30%
chance south of Highway 20 in Oregon, and 40-75% chance north of
Highway 20. 3 inches of rain over the same 72 hour period are
less than 10% for inland lowlands, 10-20% chance south of
Highway 20 in Oregon, and 20-45% chance north of Highway 20.
Given that these system will be warm, snow levels will rise
above pass level. Looking beyond Thursday, ensembles indicate
yet another weather system could bring additional rain on Friday
into Saturday. Keep an eye on the forecast if you have holiday
travel plans! /42

&&

.AVIATION...The influence of high pressure persists resulting in
fog continuing to develop across much of the Willamette Valley
and portions of SW Washington. This is resulting in widespread
IFR/LIFR conditions. These conditions are expected to persist
through at least 18Z Saturday. However, it will be challenging to
forecast when/if these conditions could improve. In general,
guidance is showing general improvement towards IFR/MVFR
conditions from 18Z-20Z Saturday, but at this point, there is
around a 60% probability of improvement. If there is any
improvement, expect it to be rather short lived as conditions are
expected to deteriorate back towards IFR/LIFR around 00Z-03Z
Sunday.

KPDX AND APPROACHES..LIFR conditions currently in place at and
near the terminal. Expecting conditions to improve around 18Z-20Z
Saturday with a return to MVFR/VFR conditions by 20Z-22Z
Saturday. However, there is around a 40% probability of conditions
only improving to IFR. If there is any improvement, expect it to
be rather short lived as conditions are expected to deteriorate
back towards IFR/LIFR around 00Z-03Z Sunday. /42

&&

.MARINE...High pressure over the area is maintaining fairly stable
conditions with minimal change expected through Monday. Seas
currently range from 10-15 ft at 12-16 seconds and are expected to
slowly subside towards 9-12 ft by Monday. Seas are expected to
fall below 10 ft around Monday afternoon and will persist through
at least the middle of the upcoming week. On Sunday a frontal
system will make it`s way over the waters causing winds to
increase from the south with gusts up to 25 kt. The low will move
inland by late Sunday into Monday and winds will shift to the
northwest. /42

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...An energetic westerly swell is expected along
the northwestern Oregon and southwestern Washington coasts through
Monday. Seas 9-14 ft at 13-16 seconds are forecast through the
the weekend. These energetic waves can run significantly farther
up a beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties, creating
potentially life-threatening conditions in the surf zone when
beachgoers can be unexpectedly knocked off their feet and pulled
out into cold ocean waters.

A Beach Hazards Statement has therefore been issued through 10 AM
Monday. Caution should be used when in or near the water, and
beachgoers with children should be especially watchful. Never turn
your back on the ocean, and be sure to keep an eye on the waves.
Those participating in razor clam digs should additionally
exercise caution. /42

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for ORZ108>111-
     114>118.

WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for WAZ204>206.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday for PZZ210-251>253-
     271>273.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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