416
FXUS66 KPQR 150445
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
945 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Updated Aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...Onshore flow will maintain seasonable temperatures
through much of the coming week. Chances for light rain return
to the coast Monday night into Tuesday and inland Tuesday night
into Wednesday, with minimal amounts expected. Better rain
chances look to return to the area Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Little change in the upper level pattern today as
a deep low centered near Haida Gwaii maintains broad upper level
troughing over the NE Pacific and robust onshore flow across the
Pacific Northwest. Marine stratus has once again been stubborn
to erode and has held temperatures down around 60 degrees thus
far today north and west of a Portland to Tillamook line. Other
parts of the area are under mostly clear skies, with
temperatures climbing into the upper 60s and looking to top out
in the low 70s today from Salem to Eugene as a result.
Remaining stratus is showing signs of dissipating on visible
satellite as of 2 PM Saturday, which should allow highs to reach
at least into the mid to upper 60s in the Portland area through
early this evening.

Expect temperatures to run a little warmer across the area on
Sunday in response to modest 500 mb height rises and 850 mb
temps climbing to around 10-12 C. This will correspond to highs
closer to the upper 70s through the interior valleys. Locations
in the Willamette Valley currently show around a 25% chance to
reach 80 degrees from Portland to Salem, with lower
probabilities toward Eugene. Onshore flow maintains similar
conditions across the area through Tuesday as highs reach the
upper 70s each day in the interior valleys and stay closer to
the low 60s along the coast. Models continue to keep the area
dry through Monday as energy associated with an embedded
shortwave trough now passes mostly south of the area into
California. Light rain chances are present along the coast
Monday night into Tuesday, but QPF amounts remain minimal at
this time. The better chance of rain still looks to come Tuesday
night into Wednesday as another shortwave and associated surface
front cross the area. However, still do not expect much rainfall
across the area as the probability to receive a tenth of an inch
remains around 10% in the Portland area and below 5% across the
rest of the Willamette Valley, with a 25-40% chance for a tenth
of an inch along northern coastal areas and parts of southwest
WA.

Thursday will feature a return of dry conditions with
temperatures running a few degrees cooler in the low to mid 70s
behind the mid week system. Not much change in thinking from
Friday into next weekend as medium range ensembles continue to
advertise better rain chances with the arrival of deeper upper
level troughing over the Pacific Northwest. Rainfall amounts
still do not look overly impressive, but the chance for a
wetting rain of a quarter inch ranges from 30-40% along the
coast to 20-30% over the interior valleys, with nearly all
ensemble members depicting at least some measurable rain the
interior valley locations from Friday into Saturday of next
week. /CB


&&

.AVIATION...Largely VFR conditions expected as surface high
pressure persists over the Northeast Pacific. Increasing coverage
of marine stratus is expected overnight, bringing high chances
(50-60%) of MVFR cigs at AST, with lower chances (20-30%) farther
south toward ONP. Inland, low stratus building west from the
Cascade foothills could see few-sct coverage at Willamette Valley
terminals, but VFR conditions remain favored. Skies will clear
across the region by 16-20Z Sun.

Diurnal north to northwest winds will continue through the period,
with speeds diminishing to 5 kt or less by 08-12Z Sun, then
increasing to 5-10 kt after 16-20Z Sun inland, and to 10-15 kt
gusting to 20-25 kt by 18z Sun along the coast.

*KTTD ASOS is currently INOP except for altimeter and will be AMD
 NOT SKED.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected through the period.
Few-sct stratus at 2-3 kft will build from the east, especially
after 08-10z Sun and persisting into Sunday morning. Mixing
increases and skies trend clearer by 18-20Z Sun. Diurnal northwest
winds diminish to less than 5 kt tonight, then increase to 5-10
kt Sunday morning. -Picard

&&

.MARINE...North/northwesterly flow continues, with diurnally
driven peaks in the afternoon. Winds 15-20 kt expected with
gusts to around 25 kt south of Cape Falcon to Florence this
afternoon and evening. A short, low end Small Craft has been
issued and is in effect until 2 AM tomorrow (Sunday). Seas are
generally wind driven at 3 to 5 ft. This pattern is expected to
persist through the weekend.

A weak disturbance is expected to cross the region on Monday,
supporting southerly winds. A westerly swell is also expected to
move into the waters late Monday, generally around 5 ft at 10
seconds. Combined seas still look to remain 7 ft or less through
next week. ~Hall/Batz

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ252-253-272-
     273.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
x.com/NWSPortland