283
FXUS66 KPQR 200546
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
946 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Another coastal weather system will brush the area
tonight into Thursday morning bringing light rain, with dry
conditions otherwise expected through the workweek. The pattern
then shifts wetter and colder this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Now through Friday Night...Visible satellite
imagery early Wednesday morning depicts a frontal system
approaching the West Coast with mid to high level clouds
spreading into NW Oregon and SW Washington. Additionally, low
stratus is seen lingering in inland valleys, including much of
the Willamette Valley. Stratus has dissipated along the Columbia
River into the Portland metro area due to offshore winds
increasing this morning, bringing in dryer air through the
Columbia River Gorge from eastern Cascades. Expect gusts up to
20-25 mph in the Portland metro area and up to 25-35 mph through
the Western Columbia River Gorge, Cascades north of Linn
County, northern Oregon Coast Range, and Willapa Hills through
this evening. As the frontal system moves through the region
tonight, winds will decrease and turn southerly. A warm front is
moving inland on the central Oregon coast, with radar imagery
showing faint radar returns. Some very light showers may occur
with this, but the main band of rain will come with the cold
front that will quickly reach the central Oregon coast by 5-7 PM
PST and spread northeast overnight tonight. The cold front and
main band of rain is expect to be east of the Willamette Valley
by 4 AM PST tomorrow, with scattered showers continuing through
the region tomorrow. Not much rain is expected with this system,
generally 0.05-0.15 inches for the interior lowlands and
0.25-0.5 inches along the coast and Cascades. Localized amounts
up to 1 inch are possible along the central Oregon coast and
Cascades. Snow levels will remain above 5000 ft through most of
the night when precipitation is heaviest, only lowering to 4500
ft by early tomorrow morning when precipitation turns more
showery. Around 1 inch of snow or less may accumulate at
Willamette and Santiam Passes, but not enough snow is expected
to cause travel impacts.

Ridging begins building over the PacNW tomorrow night into
Friday, allowing drying conditions and clearing skies.
Temperatures are expected to be much cooler tomorrow night into
Friday morning as clearer skies will allow for radiative cooling
along with the colder airmass behind the front. There`s a high
chance for most inland areas to fall into the mid to upper 30s
with a 20-45% chance for rural areas in the Willamette Valley to
fall near or below freezing. If skies clear early enough
Thursday night, low stratus and fog potential will once again
be on the table for Thursday night/Friday morning. -03


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...This weekend into early
next week, the ridge axis will slowly slide eastward toward the
Rockies, allowing the storm track to dip south into the Pacific
Northwest and resulting in steadily increasing chances for
precipitation across the region by Sunday. Ensemble guidance is
coming into better agreement that Saturday will remain mostly
dry, though a handful of members continue to indicate the storm
track may dip south enough for light precipitation, mainly for
the northern portion of the forecast area along the coast and
terrain. Beyond Saturday, global ensembles remain in fairly good
agreement given the lead time that an upper- level shortwave
trough will track toward western Washington or northwestern
Oregon, although the timing of this feature remains more
uncertain, ranging anywhere from Sunday night through Tuesday.
Significant Cascade snow chances have all but disappeared with
this system with less than 5% chance of 6 inches or more of snow
from Sunday to Tuesday. On the heels of this shortwave,
however, another shot of colder temperatures could reach the
region toward the middle of next week. -36/03


&&

.AVIATION...Late this evening a frontal boundary is currently
progressing through the region with a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions
across the inland terminals and MVFR to IFR along the coast.
Expect this widespread rain band to continue for several more
hours before breaking to showers SW to NE between 09-11z. It`s
just after this transition probabilities for MVFR conditions peak
inland, likely persisting at times through the mid morning hours,
before improvement gradually takes hold into the afternoon while
shower activity largely tapers off and consolidates towards
higher terrain features like the Coast Range and Cascades.
Confidence in timing of CIG/VIS improvement is only moderate at
this time. It`s worth noting towards the very end of the time
period (after 03-06z Thur) we`ll have to turn our attention to fog
development across the Willamette Valley, but for now it appears
to largely hold off until after the 06z TAF period so omitted any
mention of fog from this TAF package.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions persist for a few more hours,
however, by 10-12z expecting CIGs to drop to MVFR with 15-20%
chance of IFR CIGs between 10-14Z Thu. Expect CIGs to gradually
improve between 17-21z with VFR conditions favored (60-75% chance)
afterward. -99

&&

.MARINE...A weak cold frontal system is moving over the waters
causing a southerly wind reversal with gusts up to 25 kt. Will
see localized gusts up to 30 kt, especially in the inner waters.
Seas will slowly rise to 10 ft by Thursday morning. While winds
will ease following the front, seas will take over in regards
to the Small Craft Advisory. Therefore, the Small Craft bridges
the two different scenarios. In the post frontal environment, a
low pressure system in the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Alaska
will bring in a fresh swell to add on to the background swell.
Seas will increase considerably beginning Thursday afternoon. As
they build, will see widespread seas greater than 13 ft at 14
seconds. The most likely range for seas (25-75th percentile) is
13-17 ft but there is a 10% chance for seas greater than 18 ft
in the far outer waters west of 30 NM from shore. Winds are not
going to be amplified during that time. Hazardous Seas expected
through Friday morning

This is a quick shot of Hazardous Seas but don`t expected settled
conditions. For the remainder of the week into the weekend, seas
will hover right around 10-14 ft at 14 seconds with a south to
southwesterly wind. -27

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...An energetic westerly swell is expected along
the northwestern Oregon and southwestern Washington coasts for a
long duration from Thursday through next Monday. Initially, the
swell will reach 15-18 ft at 15 seconds through much of
Thursday, before weakening slightly to 10-12 ft at 12-15 seconds
from early Friday afternoon through the the weekend. Even when
this swell is slightly lower amplitude, its long-period nature
will yield a high risk for sneaker waves along area beaches.
These energetic waves can run significantly farther up a beach
than normal, including over rocks and jetties, creating
potentially life-threatening conditions in the surf zone when
beachgoers can be unexpectedly knocked off their feet and pulled
out into cold ocean waters.

A Beach Hazards Statement has therefore been issued from 5 AM
Thursday through 5 AM Monday. Caution should be used when in or
near the water, and beachgoers with children should be especially
watchful. Never turn your back on the ocean, and be sure to keep
an eye on the waves. Those participating in razor clam digs should
additionally exercise caution.-36

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday
     for PZZ210-251>253-271>273.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for PZZ251>253-
     271>273.
&&

$$

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