881
FXUS66 KPQR 030602 AAA
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
1000 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026

Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry conditions likely persist through
Tuesday as a weak frontal boundary grazes the coast to the west.
Then, after ample inland fog/low clouds to start Wednesday, an
active and wetter weather pattern returns late Wednesday through
the end of the week and beyond. However, weather related
impacts over the next 5-7 days remain fairly limited, staying
within climatological norms for early November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Now Through Sunday...An upper-level ridge of high
pressure continues to progress eastward this afternoon with weak
offshore flow helping to scour out a much wider swath of low
clouds/fog compared to this time yesterday. Still, the inversion
and low clouds have remained persistent from roughly
Salem/Albany southward. It may take until the late afternoon for
the south Willamette Valley to see improvement. Otherwise, both
satellite and radar observations are also depicting a weak
system brushing the coastline which is responsible for some of
our added high clouds and filtered sunshine for the locations
devoid of low stratus/fog. There is a 10-15% light precipitation
brushes the north Oregon coast towards the Long Beach
Peninsula/Willapa Hills this evening, but more likely the dry
conditions hold.

Come Tuesday the low pressure system off the northern
California coast moves east, remaining south of the forecast
area while dragging a broader weak large scale trough feature
overhead by the late afternoon and evening. That said, models
are in good agreement in dry weather persisting. Before the axis
of this feature is able to move inland, the resulting offshore
surface pressure gradient likely peaks Tuesday morning with
continued breezy east winds through the Columbia River Gorge and
Cascade gaps before weakening late in the day - the NBM gives a
40-55% chance for max gusts to exceed 40 mph in the western
Gorge. At least the weak troughing moving overhead, cooling
temperatures in the mid-levels Tuesday afternoon should weaken
the temperature inversion and help any lingering low cloud/fog
clear out by the afternoon.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough moving across the NE Pacific
quickly pushes a frontal system toward the coast later in the
day. Conditions appear rather conducive to fog and low stratus
formation again to start the day, followed by increasing
precipitation chances across the area in the afternoon through
Wed night. Most ensembles indicate this system will be weakening
with just light amounts of rainfall, most likely 0.1-0.30"
coast range, <0.10" inland valleys. Cluster analysis of 500 mb
heights are in relatively good agreement heading into the latter
part of the week with zonal to southwest flow aloft allowing
for a somewhat active pattern over the NE Pacific to approach
the coast. By the weekend, ensembles are in decent agreement
depicting a broader ridge axis building east of the Cascades.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in regards to exact
rainfall coverage and amounts, but there is continued potential
for multiple rounds of systems moving across the area into next
weekend. At this point, no significant precipitation impacts are
expected with any of these weather systems over the next 5 to 7
days, and snow levels hold around 5000-6000ft. However, beyond
day 7 into next week (11/10-11/14), almost all ensemble systems
like the EPS, GEFS, etc. are beginning to show a growing
consensus for a much more impactful and active weather pattern -
a period of time we`ll have to watch closely. -99/DH


&&

.AVIATION...Through 06Z Wednesday...Currently, widespread VFR
conditions with virga overhead. Expect VFR conditions to continue
at most terminals through the TAF period. The only exception is
KEUG, with a 15-25% chance of LIFR conditions between 12-18Z Tue.
With recent probabilistic guidance trending towards lower chances
at this terminal, there is rather high confidence that VFR
conditions will persist at KEUG through the TAF period.
Otherwise, expect mostly variable winds under 6 kt at all
terminals, at times easterly at the coast and eastern Portland
Metro area, and northerly within the central/southern Willamette
Valley. KTTD is the only exception, with winds around 8-11 kt and
gusts up to 22 kt tonight through Tuesday morning.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions through the TAF
period with high clouds. Light and variable winds around 3-5 kt.
~12

&&

.MARINE...Light east to southeast winds continue through this
evening as a low pressure system remains well offshore. A long
period west-northwest swell will maintain seas around 8 to 10
feet at 14-17 seconds through Tuesday. Will keep the Small Craft
Advisory for the outer coastal waters up for now, however, seas
are marginally hitting small craft conditions, so this Advisory
could potentially be dropped early if seas end up falling. This
long period swell will also result in a moderate threat for
sneaker waves at the coast today through Wednesday. Caution
should be used at beaches when in or near the water.

Winds become light and variable on Tuesday, then turn more
southerly by Wednesday ahead of an approaching frontal system.
This system is expected to be relatively weak, with around a
50-60% chance for wind gusts up to 25 kt north of Cape Falcon. By
the end of the week, model guidance hints at a stronger system
entering the waters, resulting in a 50-70% chance for maximum
wind gusts exceeding 34 kt north of Cape Falcon on Friday. In
addition, another long period westerly swell will likely build
seas into the mid-teens with a 10-20% chance for significant wave
heights exceeding 20 ft.      -10/DH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ271>273.
&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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