111
FXUS66 KPQR 251120
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
420 AM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Onshore flow will bring near average temperatures
with varying degrees of morning clouds and afternoon sunshine
for much of the next week. A weak front will bring light rain to
portions of the coast Saturday with another weak front on
Tuesday bringing another decent chance for some light rain to
northern and coastal areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Now through Thursday...Overall pretty near average
temperatures for late July are anticipated over the coming week.
The coast and more northern locations will be in the running
for a couple rounds of light rain or drizzle.

A weak front will push into the region Saturday as a weak low
pressure moves northeastward towards western Washington. This
will bring with it light rain chances to mainly the coast and
Coast Range Saturday and increasing southerly winds across the
region. NBM 12-hour probabilities for measurable precipitation
are generally around 20-30% north of Waldport along the
immediate coast, but rise into the 50-60% range across the west
facing slopes of the Coast Range and Willapa Hills. The odds
that any location receives more than a tenth of an inch is
generally below 10% except across the terrain of Tillamook,
Clatsop and Pacific Counties. It will be unusually breezy with
southerly wind gusts increasing into the 25-35 mph range along
the coast.

Looking beyond the weekend, more seasonable temperatures hang
on into early next week before uncertainty increases during the
middle of the week. Cluster analysis favors the ridge slowly
building back into the PacNW which in turn would bring an
increase in afternoon high temperatures. The NBM 10th-90th
percentile reveals there`s an 80% chance each day that
temperatures end up somewhere between the upper 70s and upper
80s through the end of next week. A weak front pushing towards
and possibly into the region does appear most likely to result
in a slight dip in temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday along
with bringing another round of light rain to the north coast
although there is a notable signal in some of the global
ensemble guidance that even locations along the I5 corridor and
certainly in the Cascades north of Portland/Vancouver will
experience at least some light measurable rain on Tuesday. -50

&&

.AVIATION...Through 12z Sunday...Terminal observations across
the region continue to show widespread VFR conditions in
place, however latest satellite imagery highlights an area of
low pressure offshore which will lift to the north-northeast
through the period and which is already producing bkn-ovc low
clouds along the OR coast and much of western WA. Low cloud
coverage is favored to increase along the coast, yielding
persistent MVFR or worse cigs through the period and IFR
increasingly favored after 00z Sun. South winds near 5 kt early
this morning will increase out of the south-southwest to around
15 kt with gusts near 25 kt this afternoon, before easing to 5
kt or less by 06z Sun.

Inland, largely VFR conditions are expected through the period.
There are 30-60% chances of MVFR cigs from generally 14-18z Sat
as low stratus develops along the Cascade foothills and builds
to the west before mixing out by midday. South winds of around
5 kt early this morning will build out of the south-souteast to
8-12 kt with gusts near 20 kt this afternoon, especially at
Willamette Valley terminals. Winds ease below 5 kt again this
evening, while chances for MVFR cigs increase after 00-03z Sun.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions favored through the period,
with 30-40% chances of MVFR cigs from 14-18z Sat as low clouds
build westward from the Cascade foothills before mixing out near
midday. Southerly winds increase to near 10 kt with gusts of
15-20 kt this afternoon before easing after 03z Sun. Chances
for restricted cigs increase late in the period. -36

&&

.MARINE...Weak low pressure offshore continues to support light
south to southeasterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft. As the
aforementioned low pressure shifts northeastward towards the
Washington coast Saturday, a front will move eastward across the
waters and result in southerly wind gusts increasing into the
23-28 kt range across the waters. In what would be pretty
exceptional for late July, there is a 10-20% chance southerly
winds at least briefly climb into the 30-35 kt range within 20NM
of the coast. Again, this does not appear likely, but it`s not
out of the question either. Current Small Craft Advisories cover
the wind hazard well at this point.

Either way, larger and steeper wind driven seas will result
with seas climbing into at least the 5-7 ft range with dominant
periods shortening into the 4-8 second range Saturday. There is
a >80% chance that the front will push ashore by 8 PM Saturday,
which will result in winds and seas subsiding across the waters
during the evening and overnight hours on Saturday.

Another weak front will approach the waters late Sunday into
early Monday with just a 25% chance that the far outer waters
beyond 40 NM north of Cape Falcon will see southerly wind gusts
at least briefly rise into the 22-25 kt range. Another front
will push towards the waters late Monday into Tuesday. While
this front stands a better chance (~50-60%) of bringing
southerly 22-25 kt wind gusts to all of the waters north of
Cape Falcon, the probability those winds extend as far south as
Cape Foulweather is just 10-20%.

Winds appear likely to return to a more typical Summertime
northerly wind pattern during the latter half of next week. Once
we get past Saturday, seas will generally be in the 3-5 ft range
for much of the next week unless some of the stronger wind
scenarios mentioned above come to fruition. -50

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.

WA...None.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for PZZ210.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for
     PZZ251>253-271>273.

&&

$$

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