014
FXUS66 KPQR 080432
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
932 PM PDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Monday will be a cool and rainy day as steady stratiform
rain spreads over the area with an incoming surface low. Expect
persistent rain from near sunrise to near sunset before stratiform
rain transitions to off-and-on showers towards 8 PM Monday. Showers
will then linger into Tuesday and Wednesday, maintaining cooler than
normal temperatures. Breezy south to southwest winds will also occur
Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon with wind gusts as high as
30-35 mph. High pressure arrives on Thursday, bringing dry weather
with highs in the 70s, except 60s at the coast. Attention then turns
to a multi-day heat wave beginning next weekend and extending into
early next week. Highs in the 90s are likely (65-85% chance) for
inland valleys during this heat event, with a 10-30% chance for highs
at or above 100 degrees June 14-15 for inland valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Now through Wednesday night...The short term
forecast is highlighted by cool and wet conditions. Beginning
Monday morning, a ~998 mb closed surfaced low will track over
the south WA/north OR coastal waters towards the Long Beach
Peninsula by the late afternoon. A large swath of steady
stratiform rain ahead of the surface low will spread from west
to east across western WA/OR around sunrise and linger through
the day, resulting in a cool and wet day. By sunset, steady
stratiform rain will transition to off-and-on post-frontal rain
showers. Beyond Monday, models and their ensembles remain in
good agreement for broad upper level troughing over the region
with west to northwest flow aloft Tuesday through Wednesday.
This will maintain a cool and showery weather pattern through
mid-week with high temperatures mainly in the 60s, however NBM
PoPs suggest showers should dissipate by Wednesday afternoon at
the latest for most locations.

The vast majority of precipitation will fall between 5 AM PDT Monday
and 5 AM PDT Wednesday. QPF amounts from the deterministic NBM during
this 48-hour period range generally between 0.5-1.0" over inland
valley, around 1" at the coast, and 1-2" in the Coast Range, Willapa
Hills, and Cascades. Probabilities for over 0.5" of rain have
increased to 85-95%, and probabilities for 1" of rain or more have
increased to 25-50% over the Willamette Valley and Portland metro,
and 75-95% along the coast, Coast Range, Willapa Hills, and Cascades.
-23

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Saturday night...The long term forecast
is highlighted by a prolonged stretch of dry conditions with a
multi-day heat wave beginning next weekend. Before the heat kicks in,
expect pleasant weather on Thursday with mostly sunny skies and high
temperatures in the 70s, except 60s at the coast. From Friday onward
into early next week, models and their ensembles show an upper level
ridge amplifying over the far northeast Pacific, with some
uncertainty regarding exactly how far east the ridge axis will move.
Despite the uncertainty with the location of the ridge axis,
confidence is high temperatures will be heating up significantly June
13-15. This is when the LREF mean shows 500 mb heights near the
climatological 97-98th percentile and the NBM shows a 65-85% chance
for high temperatures above 90 degrees for inland valleys and less
than a 10% chance at the coast. In fact, there is a 10-30% chance for
highs at or above 100 degrees June 14-15 for inland valleys,
suggesting a major heat wave is within the realm of possibilities. In
addition, overnight lows in the mid or even upper 60s will offer
minimal overnight relief. As such, probabilities for a Moderate
HeatRisk or higher peak near 75-90% June 14-15, with a 20-50% chance
for a Major HeatRisk or higher. Note the highest probabilities are
over the greater Portland/Vancouver metro. Anyone who is sensitive to
heat or those who have outdoor plans should pay attention to the
forecast over the coming days and be prepared for potential extreme
heat. Those planning on swimming in rivers or lakes to cool off
should be mindful of cold water temperatures and swift currents,
which can become life threatening. -23

&&

.AVIATION...VFR flying conditions with high cloud coverage
continuing to increase ahead of an approaching frontal system.
Westerly winds aloft with generally light and variable winds at
the surface overnight. Cigs trend lower tonight before rain
arrives from the west by 10-15z Mon. Cigs lower to MVFR a few
hours after rain begins, around 15-18z Mon along the coast and
17-20z Mon inland. Chances for IFR conditions increase along the
coast after 20z Mon. Winds shift southerly ahead of the front and
rise to 5-10 kt by 12-15z Mon. Winds then increase along the front
to 12-15 kts and gusts up to 25-35 kts along the coast by 18-20z
Mon and 25-30 kts inland by 00-03z Tue.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions. High cloud coverage will
increase from the west overnight, followed by rain beginning by
13-15z Mon. Variable winds less than 5 kt overnight, shifting
out of the south near 5 kt Monday morning ahead of the frontal
boundary. Expect cigs to become MVFR by 16-18z Mon, continuing
through the rest of the TAF period. South winds increase after
21z Mon - 00z Tue to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kts. -03

&&

.MARINE...An active and progressive pattern continues with
periods of rain and elevated wind through midweek. A first
frontal system arrives tonight into Monday morning, bringing
widespread rain and strengthening southerly winds. The strongest
winds reach 20-25 kt with gusts as high as 30-32 kt through
much of the day on Monday, with isolated gale-force gusts as
high as 35 kt most likely between 1-6 PM PDT within 20 NM south
of Cape Foulweather. Seas will build from 4-5 ft this afternoon
to 7-9 ft at 8 seconds by Monday afternoon with a continued
dominant westerly swell. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect
beginning at 11 PM PDT this evening beyond 10 NM and at 5 AM
PDT Monday within 10 NM, and continuing through at least Tuesday
afternoon. While southerly winds will subside behind the
frontal passage, west-northwesterly winds is its wake are also
expected to gust near 20-25 kt while seas remain relatively
steep, so Small Craft Advisories may need to be extended
further.

West-northwest winds on Wednesday will steadily turn out of the
north as high pressure builds offshore. Strengthening northerlies
will see diurnal peaks in the afternoon each day Thursday through
at least Saturday, periods which could necessitate additional
Small Craft Advisories for gusts near 25 kt. Seas through this
period look to remain near 5-7 ft with a west-northwest swell at
9-11 seconds. -36

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 2 PM PDT Tuesday for
     PZZ251>253.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ271>273.
&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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