


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR
Issued by NWS Portland, OR
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266 FXUS66 KPQR 020455 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 955 PM PDT Tue Apr 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Cool and showery conditions will remain in place through Wednesday as upper level troughing remains over the region, with high temperatures in the 50s. Chilly overnight lows bring frost potential Wednesday night and Thursday night, albeit fog is favored over frost Wednesday night while frost is favored over fog Thursday night. Expect warmer and drier conditions with highs near or above 70 degrees Friday into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Thursday Night...Satellite and surface weather observations from early to mid Tuesday afternoon showed scattered light rain showers developing over southwest WA and northwest OR in response to daytime heating. Expect showers to decrease in coverage Tuesday evening as heating wanes, albeit some isolated showers will likely remain. Most showers should be light, however the strongest showers could produce brief periods of moderate rain. Model soundings continue to suggest these showers will be vertically shallow with a minimal threat of hail and/or thunder. There could be a few cells that overperform and produce one or two flashes of lightning and/or hail smaller than the size of peas, however the probability for thunder is generally less than 15%. Note some locations will stay dry through the remainder of the day due to the hit-or-miss nature of these showers. Showers will become more widespread on Wednesday as a shortwave trough and associated vort max traverses the region in northwest flow. Similar to Tuesday, thunder is unlikely to occur with these showers due to a lack of surface-based instability. If a few breaks in cloud cover occur, there could be a very isolated weak thunderstorm or two that produce one or two flashes of lightning and small hail, however probabilities for thunder remain less than 15%. Expect precipitation amounts between a tenth and a quarter inch along the coast and around a tenth of an inch or less inland. Minimal snow accumulations are expected for the Cascade passes, with snow levels hovering around 2500-3000 feet. Models suggest showers will linger over the area Wednesday evening before becoming isolated and mainly confined to the coast and mountains Wednesday night. The NBM does suggest cloud cover will attempt clearing out after midnight, however some model soundings show a deep layer of cloud cover lingering through the night, particularly the NAM. The HREF ensemble mean for cloud cover also shows minimal breaks in low cloud cover. Given the showery activity that is set to occur Wednesday morning through the evening, the ground will be wet overnight. This will tend to favor the formation of fog rather than frost in the lowlands, assuming cloud cover clears out enough to allow for air temps to cool down to the dew point temperature. While frost cannot be completely ruled out in the Willamette Valley and Cascade foothills, it appears it would be quite patchy in coverage. As such, Frost Advisories likely won`t be needed Wednesday night unless the forecast changes. Thursday still looks to be a day of transition as dry northerly flow develops behind the departing upper level trough, bringing mainly dry conditions with seasonable temperatures. Frost is more likely to occur Thursday night as the ground will be relatively drier at that point, surface dew point temperatures will be slightly lower, winds will be calm and skies will be completely clear through the night with widespread lows in the mid 30s. Suspect at least some zones will eventually need a Frost Advisory, but will hold off for now until confidence in exact overnight lows is higher. -TK .LONG TERM...Friday through Monday Night...After another chilly start to the day on Friday with potential areas of frost, expect rapidly warming temps through the afternoon thanks to plentiful sunshine and an incoming upper level ridge over the coastal waters. The NBM 50th percentile seems reasonable for high temps on Friday, suggesting widespread highs well into the 60s, except around 70 degrees in the Portland/Vancouver metro. This makes sense as the metro will be under the influence of low-level offshore flow with easterly winds increasing through the western Columbia River Gorge into the eastern metro. Models and their ensembles show the ridge axis moving inland over western WA/OR on Saturday while low-level offshore flow remains in place. As such, temps will be even warmer on Saturday with widespread highs in the low to mid 70s. Even coastal locations will likely flirt with 70 degrees thanks to offshore flow. Probabilities for highs of 80 degrees or warmer have decreased to 0-1% on Saturday, suggesting highs in the upper 70s is a reasonable high-end solution. Despite high confidence in the forecast for Friday and Saturday, forecast confidence remains low on Sunday. The uncertainty on Sunday is being driven mainly by model timing differences in the breakdown of the aforementioned ridge and subsequent arrival of the next upper level trough and associated cloud cover and rain ahead of it. The GEFS/GEPS ensemble mean for 6-hr QPF both show measurable rain beginning over western WA/OR sometime Sunday morning, while the ENS mean holds off until the afternoon/evening. To complicate matters further, all three ensemble systems have some members showing rain holding off until Sunday night. This is resulting in a very large degree of model spread for high temps Sunday, which the NBM 10th-90th percentile shows well, depicting high temps ranging anywhere from the upper 50s to near 80 degrees. If rain moves in early in the day, highs will likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. If rain moves in during the middle part of the day, highs would likely be in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. If rain holds off until Sunday night, expect highs in the mid to upper 70s. Despite being further out in time, model spread actually decreases on Monday compared to Sunday. This is due to higher confidence the aforementioned ridge will for sure be to our east by Monday at the latest, resulting in a relatively cooler weather pattern with chances for showers. 6-hourly PoPs currently range between 40-60% through the day Monday. -TK && .AVIATION...An initial weak trough has exited eastward out of the region with isolated light rain showers continuing across the Cascades, while a second weak trough approaching the coast from the northwest. Renewed coverage of rain showers has begun at AST and will reach southward to ONP and eastward to inland terminals by 08-10Z Wed. MVFR cigs remain favored at AST/ONP within onshore flow and during showers, with low-VFR cigs at 3-4 kft more likely from Portland-area terminals south through the Willamette Valley. Light showers are not anticipated to restrict vis below 6SM, however brief periods of MVFR vis within heavier showers cannot be ruled out. As showers progress to the southeast through the morning, increased diurnal mixing will see cigs lift to 4-5 kft, before showers end by 00-06Z Thu as ridging begins to build over the Northeast Pacific. Winds will remain generally out of the west at less than 5 kt tonight, before increasing to 5-10 kt by 18Z Wed and turning out of the northwest to north after 00Z Thu. PDX AND APPROACHES...Latest radar trends continue to bring the next round of showers toward PDX around 09-10Z Wed, although impacts at the terminal are not expected aside from brief MVFR cig/vis possible if a heavy shower moves directly overhead, however latest guidance suggests the majority of heavier showers will be focused to the east and southeast, nearer to the Cascades. Following a minor lull in shower activity through the late morning, additional diurnal showers are expected through the afternoon, although lifting cigs will make MVFR conditions less likely despite increased shower coverage. Again, brief restricted vis remains a possibility in the low- probability case a shower moves overhead. Showers will quickly decrease in coverage by 00-03Z Thu, with dry conditions expected thereafter. Northwest to west winds of 5 kt or less are expected overnight, increasing to 5-10 kt Wednesday afternoon, and diminishing again through Wednesday evening. -Picard && .MARINE...High pressure over the northeast Pacific and lower pressure inland will lead to modest westerly, northwesterly and northerly winds through the work week. Seas will steadily decrease through the end of the week. High pressure will shift over the waters early in the weekend before giving way to a cold front late in the weekend. There is a 20% chance that Gale Force southerly wind gusts occur ahead of the front sometime on Sunday, but a greater than 90% chance that seas will climb into the teens by late Sunday or early Monday as a southwesterly to westerly swell push into the waters. Finally, we are in a period of stronger ebb currents. The Wednesday morning ebb is in our very strong category and the Thursday morning ebb is in the strong category. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland