094
FXUS66 KPQR 132222
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
222 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Light rain will spread over the region as a cold
front pushes eastward. Lower chances of precipitation on Sunday
as low pressure stalls off the northern California coast. There
is moderate confidence in the pattern remaining cool and wet
through next week as upper level troughing persists over the
region, though there is low confidence is exact details at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday Night...A cold front continues to
move southeast toward the region, bringing precipitation to the
region. Light rain has started along the coast and is expected
to spread inland this afternoon. Precipitation totals through
Saturday morning are expected to be highest along the Coast
where 0.5-1.0 inches are rain are expected. Totals inland
through the Willamette Valley and I-5 corridor in WA are
expected to be lower in the 0.1-0.3 inch range with slightly
higher amounts closer to 0.5 inches in the foothills of the
Cascades and Coast Range. Snow levels around 3500-5000 feet this
evening will gradually drop as the front moves through and
colder air aloft filters in. Snow levels over the southwest WA
and north OR Cascades will drop to between 2500-3000 feet while
the central OR Cascades see snow levels in the 3500-4000 foot
range tonight. Snow totals through Saturday morning are mainly
expected above 3000 feet with 1-3 inches expected around
Government Camp and near Willamette Pass with slightly higher
totals of 3-5 inches around McKenzie and Santiam Passes.

The pattern remains active through the weekend as the upper level
low pinches off and moves toward central CA, leaving OR in the
saddle point between upper level disturbances. As such, post-
frontal precipitation chances will persist through the weekend,
but will trend lower as the cut-off low develops. Weaker forcing
and the more showery precipitation will lead to lighter
precipitation totals Saturday evening and into Sunday night.
Precipitation totals through this period are expected to be
highest across the Cascades and central OR Coast Range with
0.1-0.3 inches expected and lower totals in the Willamette
Valley topping out around 0.1 inches. Areas around the Portland
Metro and north will see little to no precipitation.
-19

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...There is decent agreement
among ensembles that an anomalously deep upper level trough
drops south out of Alaska, bringing colder air aloft to the
region early next week. Upper disturbances will also produce
periods of precipitation across the region. 850 mb temperatures
are likely to be in the -3 to -6 C range, which is marginal for
snow to the valley floor with onshore flow. The NBM maintains
low probabilities for lowland conversational snow at around
1-10% overnight and early each morning with higher probabilities
for elevations above 500 ft. Any snow that does accumulate
would quickly melt as temperatures rise above freezing each day,
thereby limiting potential impacts.

Confidence in snowfall totals over the Cascades remains low but
trends support coinciding cold air and moisture which should bring
healthy snowfall. Accumulation at pass level seems likely but exact
timing and amounts are unclear so will continue to monitor the
pattern for impacts. The latest guidance gives the best chances for
exceeding 6 inches of snow during a 24-hr period for Thursday
through Thursday night, at around 50-60% and 20-40% for 12 inches or
more. This time period also corresponds with snow levels potentially
falling to around 1500 ft. There is also a chance for snow to reach
pass level in the Coast Range, mainly around highway 6 and 26.
-19/DH

&&

.AVIATION...The cold front continues to push inland with heavy
rain and gusty winds though it has moved slower than previously
thought. A mixture of MVFR and VFR flight conditions as
thickening stratus moves inland. Most sites continue to bounce
between the two levels. South to southwest winds through the
period. Rain combined with wind has caused visibility to
temporarily lower in some locations, especially along the north
Oregon coast. Models suggest there is a potential for prolonged
VFR CIGs within the Willamette Valley - likely due orographic lift
off of the Coast Range but cooling and settling over night will
promote a reduction in CIG level once again. Once day breaks, the
front will have mostly exited the area and winds will shift to the
north signifying the initial stages of a widespread VFR lift.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions prevail for the next hour or
two as the front makes its slow approach towards KPDX. As it
begins to rain, CIGs will lower slightly though there is a 50%
chance that we could see conditions become MVFR. Rain will become
heavy at times which may cause temporary reductions to visibility.
Overnight, cooler air will allow for CIGs to settle further and
thus, a more long-lived MVFR stratus is forecast. Back building
off of the Cascades increases the probability for MVFR stratus to
60% after 17Z Sat. Northerly winds begin around 17-18Z Sat with
speeds around 8-10 kt. -27

&&

.MARINE...Today has been a bit more complicated as the cold front
that we had been waiting for stalled over the waters causing winds
to increase and created a stronger westerly swell. Seas ended up
building to 17 ft at 16 seconds at a number of buoys this morning,
with the outer buoys still reporting similar heights. These
heights have trended towards the 90th percentile for some of our
models. There is a general trend of a slow decrease in wave
heights behind the front, but due to it`s slow progress, those
heights may linger longer than currently forecast. Winds are
non-impactful at this time with gusts generally below 20 kt.

As the front exits, winds will become northerly though the
background swell remains west-northwesterly. Based on high
resolution models, there is around a 20% chance of gale force
winds in the southern waters of PZZ273 on Saturday evening into
Sunday morning. The next period of concern lies on Thursday as
another strong front moves over the waters. There is a 25-35%
chance of gale force winds on this day at this point. -27

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A high threat for sneaker persists through
Sunday evening due to a long period westerly swell. Waves can run
up significantly farther on a beach than normal, including over
rocks and jetties. Sneaker waves can suddenly knock people off of
their feet and quickly pull them into the frigid ocean which may
lead to serious injury or drowning. Caution should be used when in
or near the water, especially those who will be razor clamming.
Keep children and pets away from the surf zone. Keep off of
jetties, rocks and logs near the surf zone. If you see someone
swept into the sea do not swim in after them. Call 911 and keep an
eye on them until help arrives. -10

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.

WA...None.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for PZZ210.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for PZZ251>253.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ271>273.

&&

$$

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