791
FXUS65 KPSR 021725
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1025 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and overall quiet weather conditions are expected through
  the rest of the week.

- Near normal temperatures will continue through Friday before
  gradually warming over the weekend into next week.

- A passing weak weather system on Wednesday will bring another
  round of breezy conditions across the Lower CO River Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Quiet weather conditions are expected to prevail through the rest
of the week with a second Pacific disturbance now forecast to
mainly bypass our region Wednesday into early Thursday. Current
water vapor imagery shows fairly dry air over the Desert Southwest
under north northwesterly shortwave ridging aloft. Models are now
fully on board with the next trough taking a more easterly track
across the Great Basin late tonight/early Wednesday and through
the northern half of Arizona into New Mexico late Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Advertised moisture levels have also dropped
considerably due to the more progressive northerly track and also
due to models showing it being a much weaker system. After a very
pleasant and sunny day today with temperatures right near normal,
Wednesday should not be much different. As the system passes
through our region on Wednesday, it should only bring some higher
level clouds to southern Arizona while dropping daytime highs a
couple more degrees. A tighter gradient will also help to bring
another day of breezy conditions across portions of southeast
California through the Lower CO River Valley. Thursday will see
the disturbance exit to the east with temperatures remaining near
normal readings.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/...
The weather pattern going into the weekend and likely through all
of next week depicts a dominant ridge stalling out across the
eastern Pacific and much of the Western U.S., including the Desert
Southwest. The core of the ridge, with H5 heights as high as
585-588dm (above 90th percentile of climatology), is forecast to
stay off the West Coast, but our region will still largely be
dominated by the ridge over the weekend and likely for much of
next week. There is still some uncertainty with a passing trough
well to our north early next week, but this disturbance is likely
to only temporarily flatten the ridge. H5 heights across the
Desert Southwest should rise to between 576-580dm this weekend,
staying there through early next week before potentially peaking
between between 579-582dm at some point during the mid to latter
part of next week.

Under the ridge, we can expect dry conditions to prevail through
most if not all of next week. NBM forecast temperatures are shown
to gradually rise this weekend, likely peaking into the slightly
above normal range of 69-73 degrees by Sunday. The warming trend
should continue through the first half of next week with daytime
highs reaching into the mid 70s with even some potential (25-50%)
of some spots topping out in the upper 70s at some point later
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1724Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns under some passing FEW-SCT high
clouds are expected throughout the TAF period. The overall wind
pattern will exhibit typical diurnal tendencies with speeds
generally aob 7 kts along with extended periods of light
variability to calm conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will continue to prevail across the region this
week with a second dry weather system passing mainly to the north
of the region Wednesday into Thursday. This system will however
bring another round of breezy conditions across the Lower CO River
Valley Wednesday and Thursday with light winds prevailing across
the eastern districts. Humidities this week will stay elevated
with MinRHs mostly ranging between 25-35% much of the time, with
good to very good overnight recoveries. Near to slightly below
normal temperatures are forecast through Friday before a warming
trend pushes temperatures above normal by early next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Smith/Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman