920
FXUS65 KPSR 232005
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
105 PM MST Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend before
readings warm back closer to the seasonal average for the bulk of
next week.

- Aside from a few showers over the mountains of Arizona Saturday,
dry and tranquil weather conditions will grace the region through
the middle of next week.

- A return to inclement weather with increased rainfall chances is
possible towards the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Early afternoon WV imagery shows elongated, positively tilted
troughing over the western Conus with a prominent vorticity center
lifting north across the Great Basin, while trailing shortwave
energy starts to fill into the height weakness over the Southwest.
Behind the initial Great Basin wave, a cold front has cleared
eastward into New Mexico with a deep layer of drier air now
entrenched over the forecast area. Forecast confidence is excellent
that a vorticity center currently descending south along the Sierra
range will carve into the trough base over the lower Colorado River
valley in the next 24 hours before slowly lifting into the four
corners during the weekend. This evolution will ensure H5 heights
hover in a 565-572dm range through early next week yielding high
temperatures 4F-8F below the daily normals and very comfortable
overnight lows. While better quality moisture has already been
scoured from the region leaving mixing ratios only 5-6 g/kg, the
progression of the midlevel cold core over the mountains of central
Arizona Saturday afternoon may squeeze out a few showers, albeit
rather inconsequential while leaving lower elevations enjoying a
delightful autumn weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...
Benign weather conditions will continue well into next week with the
lingering trough finally moving out of the region and being replaced
by weak ridging to zonal westerly flow. This pattern shift will
maintain mostly clear skies and dry conditions, while allowing
temperatures to gradually warm back into a near normal range through
at least the first half of next week. Expect the bulk of the lower
deserts to have daily highs in the lower to middle 80s and lows from
the mid 50s to mid 60s during the first half of next week. Model
uncertainty grows later next week as there are hints at some
moisture return into the region from the southeast, then a potential
atmospheric river approaching by next weekend. Either, or both of
these moisture sources may eventually help to bring a return to rain
chances at some point before the end of the month, but it is too
early to have a good idea on timing and/or placement for any weather
feature this far in advance.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1735Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No weather concerns are expected through the TAF period. Westerly to
northwesterly winds will persist through the afternoon and evening
hours with periods of VRB intermixed. Just past mid-night tonight
winds will shift back out of the east, and look to resume typical
diurnal tendencies tomorrow. Wind speeds will be aob 07 kts. Skies
will be mostly clear with FEW mid level cloud decks developing later
in the period.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the for TAF
period. Winds will favor a westerly component at KIPL while KBLH
will remain out of the NW. Speeds should remain light around 5-7 kts
or lower. FEW passing mid level clouds during the overnight hours at
KIPL, otherwise mostly clear skies at both terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air has spread through the area since yesterday morning
resulting in clearing skies and an end to the rain chances. The
weather system will still linger across the region over the next
couple of days bringing light shower chances to mountain areas
Saturday, but no wetting rainfall is expected. Minimum humidity
levels will fall into a 25-50% range following good to excellent
overnight recovery. Light winds are forecast for today and for much
of the area on Saturday with only some breeziness possible early
Saturday across the western districts. Overall quiet weather
conditions are forecast Sunday into next week with fairly stable
humidities and temperatures rebounding back into the normal range by
Tuesday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...18/Kuhlman
AVIATION...Ryan
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman