585
FXUS65 KPSR 020426
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
926 PM MST Thu Oct 1 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 06z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with zero rain chances will persist through at
  least the weekend and likely much of next week.

- As high pressure builds over the region, a gradual warming trend
  will bring temperatures at least into a normal range starting
  this weekend and eventually slightly above normal for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much drier and quieter conditions are ahead as the low pressure
system that brought the rainy conditions earlier in the week
continues to move eastward and is now centered over Northern
Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. Meanwhile to the region`s west a
large ridge is building and is expected to move over the Desert
SW by late Friday. Until then, today`s temperatures will begin to
climb, with the western lower deserts already influenced by the
ridge as afternoon highs are in the mid to upper 90s, or near
normal. Temperatures in South-central AZ will range in the low to
mid 90s or just slightly below normal. Starting Friday as the
ridge begins to set up over the Desert SW, temperatures across
the entire region will respond to near to 1-2 degrees above normal
for early October. During the peak of the heights, late friday
into the weekend, the NAEFS climatological percentile is in the
90th percentile, mostly in western deserts, and along the Colorado
River Valley. Otherwise, the main weather impact for the
remainder of the workweek will be easterly gusty winds. These
easterly morning gusts, easily reaching 20-25 mph across southern
Arizona, will supply the area with some weak moisture advection in
the low levels. Although this moisture will not be nearly enough
to bring any rain chances, as the upper atmosphere will still
remain fairly dry, but it will keep surface dew points in the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Little will change over the weekend and likely even for the bulk
of next week. The high pressure ridge is heavily favored to remain
over or at least very close to our region well into next week
keeping us under dry air aloft but with a persistent easterly low
level semi-moist flow. Subsidence under the ridge and the dry air
should keep a lid on any potential convective chances most days.
There are some hints at maybe some convective potential early next
week over the highest peaks in eastern Arizona, but as of now the
highest PoPs barely breach 10% over the White Mountains.

Temperatures are forecast to rise a bit further during the first
half of next week with the western deserts likely reaching 100-104
degrees, while the south-central Arizona lower deserts may get
close to 100 degrees. These early October temperatures would range
from 4-8 degrees above normal. Overnight lows will also be at
least a few degrees above normal, but generally staying in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. The most interesting part of the forecast
will be the daily easterly breezy conditions due to the expected
position of the high over or just to our north and a weak trough
setting up to our south. The easterly winds should reach their
peak over the weekend and during the mid to late morning hours
with gusts in some places reaching 30-35 mph. As daytime heating
increases and the mixed layer rises, the winds will be more
dispersed and decrease during the afternoon hours. We should keep
these daily easterly mostly morning breezes through at early next
week and possibly longer.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0415Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major aviation weather concerns under clear skies can be
expected throughout the TAF period. Overall wind directions
throughout the period will be out of the east. Light speeds under
10 kts will prevail through early Friday morning before gusts
upwards of 20 kts materialize by the mid/late morning through the
afternoon hours, subsiding around sunset.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather issues under clear skies can be expected
throughout the TAF period. Winds through early Friday morning will
generally be light and variable with periods of calm conditions
before a more easterly direction materializes by the mid/late
morning hours with overall speeds aob 10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier conditions are expected to last through the weekend, with
persistent clear skies as a high pressure system sets up over the
region. Near normal temperatures are expected with the warmest
temperatures consistently across the western districts. MinRHs
will mostly range from 15-25% over the western districts to 25-35%
for the eastern districts with good to excellent overnight
recoveries. After light winds today, breezy east winds will set up
tonight into Friday and persist for several days. Morning wind
gusts of 20-30 mph will be common starting Friday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman/Ryan