987
FXUS65 KPSR 030505
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1005 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flooding of a few area streams and rivers will persist the next
couple days while some major waterways like the Salt River will
continue to experience flooding through the week due to dam releases.

- Dry weather with seasonable temperatures will continue the next
several days with lower desert highs warming into upper 70s to
middle 80s by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Latest mid-lvl wv imagery and 500 mb streamline analysis reveals the
trough of low pressure that passed through our region yesterday is
now entering the Midwest while a shortwave ridge builds behind this
feature over the West Coast. Winds will be somewhat breezy this
afternoon on the backside of the departing trough, mainly along the
lower Colorado River Valley where gusts could reach 20-25 mph at
times. However, much of the region will experience light winds and
clear skies through the rest of this afternoon with highs reaching
the mid 60s to low 70s across the lower deserts. Winds will greatly
diminish tonight after sunset, becoming very light and calm across
the area. With clear skies and light winds along with residual sfc
moisture left over from yesterday`s rain event, there is a chance
that patchy fog could develop in low lying elevations early Tuesday
morning. The most likely location for fog development will be N
Pinal County and the Imperial Valley.

The aforementioned shortwave ridge will pass over the forecast area
tomorrow between the departing upper level trough and another
Pacific low. Model guidance keeps this next Pacific low on a west-
east trajectory through UT and CO on Wednesday. Just about all this
transient low will do to the local area is suppress heights and keep
temperatures from warming more quickly. High temperatures Tuesday
and Wednesday will rise by a few degrees area-wide, but still remain
around 5 degrees below normal, with lower desert communities
reaching the middle low to mid 70s. Morning temperatures the next
few days will be seasonally cool, mostly in the 50s across the lower
deserts and 40s in higher elevation communities and some of the
typically cooler lower desert valley spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term forecast remains dry and seasonal. There is now much
better confidence in the late week and weekend forecast, which
favors ridging building in across the West and a weak cutoff low
forming over the Pacific west of Baja California. Weak troughing
looks to drag across the local area Friday into Saturday ahead of
the building ridge. Previous forecasts supported slight rain chances
with this trough, but this trough now looks completely dry and
latest NBM PoPs are 5% or less across the region. These are also the
only PoPs in the 7-day forecast. Plenty of time to dry out fallowing
all the rain. Temperatures during the second half of the week will
remain steady near to slightly below normal and then heading into
the weekend temperatures are likely to trend warmer as the ridging
builds into the west. Most lower deserts may see high temperatures
return to the low and possibly even mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0505Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major weather concerns will exist through Tuesday evening under
periods of passing high cirrus. Confidence is good that light east
winds will develop across the Phoenix area through Tuesday afternoon
before attempting to become W/NW by sunset. However, directions may
only become variable with speeds hovering under 8kt before
reverting back to easterly. Across SE California, light W/NW winds
will be preferred through the period with prolonged periods of light
and variable winds common.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Lingering floodwater runoff in area creeks, streams, and rivers is
likely to continue through tonight. Otherwise, rain has ended and
dry seasonal conditions can be expected through the next 7 days.
Saturated grounds will help keep surface humidity levels somewhat
elevated. Afternoon minimum RHs today will be around 50-60% across
AZ and 25-35% across southeast CA. Despite gradual drying through
the week, the minimum RHs will only fall to around 35-45% across AZ
and 20-30% across southeast CA. Overnight recoveries will remain
good through the week, with around 60-80% max RHs most nights. Winds
through the next 7 days will mostly follow typical diurnal trends
with light speeds and modest afternoon upslope gusts. Some breezier
north winds may develop along the lower Colorado River Valley at
times, but with only minor gusts up to 20-25 mph forecast at this
time.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salerno/Benedict
LONG TERM...Benedict
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict