695
FXUS65 KPSR 302330
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
430 PM MST Sat May 30 2026

.UPDATE...00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will warm up through the weekend, reaching a slightly
  above normal category by the beginning of this upcoming week.

- Lighter, more seasonable wind speeds with only modest afternoon
  breezes will be common this weekend and likely persist through
  much of this upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper-level water vapor satellite imagery and 500mb RAP analysis
show a closed low pressure system in the WY-UT-CO tri state area
with quasi-zonal flow over AZ and southern CA. With the
aforementioned low well north of our area, and moving N/NE, wind
speeds across the area have returned to more typical light speeds
with some occasional afternoon breeziness. These lighter wind speeds
are expected to continue into the beginning of this upcoming week.

H5 heights, early this afternoon, are around 580 dm over most of the
CWA, which is an increase of 3-4 dm from 24 hours earlier. This
increase in H5 heights has resulted in warming temperatures, with
afternoon high temperatures expected to top out in the low to mid
90s across the lower deserts and in the mid to upper 80s to around
90 degrees across the higher terrain areas. Despite these warming
temperatures, today`s forecasted highs are still around 4-6 degrees
below normal.

For the end of the weekend and by the beginning of next week and
omega block pattern will start to amplify with deep low pressure
systems in the New England area and the Gulf of Alaska and an
amplifying ridge centered over the Plains. As this pattern
amplifies H5 heights will gradually rise across our region (going
from 580 dm this afternoon to around 585 dm by Monday afternoon).
This increase in heights will result in a warming trend across the
region. Afternoon high temperatures will rise to near normal on
Sunday (upper 90s to near 100 across the lower deserts and 90s
across the higher terrain) and go slightly above normal on Monday
(100-105 degrees across the lower deserts and the mid to upper 90s
across the higher terrain). With temperatures returning to the
above normal category on Monday, isolated areas of Moderate
HeatRisk will develop across portions of the lower deserts (most
notably across the Lower CO River region). As temperatures warm,
remember to practice smart heat safety by drinking plenty of water
and electrolytes and limiting your time outdoors (especially
during the afternoons).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
By Tuesday, upper level ridging will already be present centered
over Central CONUS and will lead to temperatures 2F-4F degrees above
normal for early June. Localized areas of moderate HeatRisk will
persist throughout the week as high temperatures will remain very
steady with only a 1F-2F degrees difference day to day. Otherwise,
skies will be mostly clear throughout the week which will help
cooling overnight, where lows will be near to 1F-2F degrees above
normal. By Friday and heading into next weekend, temperatures will
begin to cool by a degree or two in response to a cut off low
developing over Northern Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2330Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation concerns are anticipated through the forecast period
under clear skies. Winds will follow typical diurnal trends at all
terminals with speeds remaining generally less than 10 kts. There
may also be extended periods of calm and VRB conditions overnight
and particularly prior to the onset of any wind shifts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Light winds will mainly follow their diurnal upslope/upvalley and
nocturnal drainage patterns through most of this upcoming week.
Some occasional breeziness is expected as well. Below normal
temperatures continue today with temperatures returning to near
normal tomorrow. Temperatures rise slightly above normal on Monday
and will stay slightly above normal through at least the upcoming
workweek. MinRHs will be around 10-20% today and decrease even
further to 5-15% region wide tomorrow and remain in that range
through the workweek. Overnight recoveries will will be around
25-50% tonight then lower to 15-30% tomorrow and continue through
the workweek. The driest day, with lowest humidities, are
expected during the middle of the week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich