755
FXUS65 KPSR 282319
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
419 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and tranquil weather conditions will persist across the
  region with slightly above normal temperatures through this
  weekend.

- A fast moving and mostly dry weather system will skirt past the
  area to the north early Monday dropping temperatures back into
  the normal range, lasting through the first half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Current water vapor imagery shows the Desert SW under a weak
upper level ridge, which has brought the slightly above normal
temperatures throughout this week and for the Thanksgiving holiday.
This weak ridge will continue to keep temperatures slightly above
normal throughout the weekend, and mostly sunny skies with some
high passing clouds. Temperatures today will to be in the mid to
upper 70s for the lower deserts with temperatures dropping 1-3
degrees to be generally below 75 degrees over the weekend. Although
temperatures through the weekend will be quite pleasant a small
shift in the upper level pattern is anticipated by Sunday evening
to start the work week. This shift comes from an a upper level
shortwave trough, originating from the NW, that will reach the
Four Corners regions by Sunday evening. This trough will bring a
weak cold front through the region by early Monday. Leading to
temperatures cooling to near normal for the beginning of December.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Next week is trending more toward less active weather than
originally forecast by the models. The first disturbance should
bypass our area completely to the north on Monday bringing only a
period of breezy conditions across the Lower CO River Valley and
knocking down daytime highs into the upper 60s to around 70
degrees, or within the normal range for early December. The other
weather system off the West Coast should basically be a non-factor
for our region as it becomes mostly cut off from the main flow
and will eventually dissipate or somewhat get absorbed by a
potential system dropping down from the northwest during the
middle part of next week. There is still a good deal of model
uncertainty with the mid to late week weather system as it could
just be another progressive system or it may try to cut off and
retrograde westward to off the coast of southern California.
Models over the past couple of days have been trending drier with
this system, but they still show modest precipitation chances
(20-40%) centered on Wednesday night/early Thursday. If the system
ends up being a fast mover it likely won`t amount to much more
than high terrain precip chances, but if it cuts off and doesn`t
stray too far to the west it could bring more widespread chances.
We likely will not know which solution will win out until early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2320Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns are expected through the TAF period,
with wind speeds at or below 6 kts at all terminals and directions
following typical diurnal tendencies with periods of calm and
light variability. Clear skies will prevail through Saturday
morning followed by FEW to SCT high cirrus. There is a low
probability for shallow fog to move into the Imperial Valley
Saturday morning, but too low a chance to include in the TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and tranquil weather conditions are expected to persist into
early next week despite a weak weather system passing just to the
north of the area on Monday. Expect slightly above normal temperatures
through Sunday before cooling into the normal range starting
Monday. Daily MinRHs will continue to range from 25-35% through
early next week with good to very good overnight recoveries of
60-80%. Winds will overall remain light through the period except
for a period of northerly breezy conditions across the Lower CO
River Valley on Monday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Kuhlman