685
FXUS65 KPSR 250454
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
954 PM MST Sat Oct 24 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 06z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend
  before readings warm back closer to the seasonal average for the
  bulk of next week.

- Aside from a few light showers today, dry and tranquil weather
  conditions will grace the region through the middle of next
  week.

- A return to inclement weather with increased rainfall chances
  is possible towards the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The cut off low system is quickly moving through the lower
deserts, with the core of the low now over Maricopa County and is
expected to lift to the N/NE into northern AZ and over the Four
Corners region by Sunday afternoon, and exiting by Monday. As this
system passes very localized areas across Maricopa and Gila
County can expect a few isolated showers through the afternoon,
with a few locations in the metro already experiencing sprinkles
over them, activity is then expected to clear and lift north of
the CWA by late this afternoon. For the higher terrain areas,
there also remains a low chance of an isolated thunderstorm
developing this afternoon. By Sunday, dry conditions are expected
under mostly clear skies, thanks to H5 heights increasing to
between 576-579 dam, resulting in afternoon high temperatures
increasing 2-3 degrees from today. This warming trend will
continue into the beginning of the week, but thankfully over the
weekend the region will remain near to slight below normal, in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Gradually warming temperatures and overall tranquil weather is
expected through at least the first half of the next workweek with
quasi-zonal flow in the wake of the weekend low. An increase in H5
heights up to 579-582 dam by Monday will support the gradual
warming of temperatures, with afternoon highs reaching the middle
80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the lower
deserts, which is right around normal for the time of year. Dry
mostly clear skies will prevail under this pattern as well. Model
uncertainty grows later next week as there are hints at some
moisture return into the region from the southeast, then a
potential atmospheric river approaching by next weekend. Either,
or both of these moisture sources may eventually help to bring a
return to rain chances at some point before the end of the month,
but it is too early to have a good idea on timing and/or placement
for any weather feature this far in advance.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0450Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns are expected throughout the TAF
period. The overall wind pattern will follow the typical diurnal
tendencies with speeds aob 6 kts along with extended periods of
light variability to even calm conditions. Mostly clear skies will
prevail through Sunday afternoon before some high cirrus cloud
decks move in later during the evening hours.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns are expected throughout the TAF
period. Winds will generally be light and variable with periods of
calm conditions. Generally clear skies can be expected through
early Sunday afternoon before some high cirrus cloud decks move in
by the late afternoon hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A low pressure system will linger across the region this weekend
bringing light shower chances this afternoon, but little to no
wetting rainfall is expected. Minimum humidity levels will fall
into a 25-50% range this afternoon and then dry heading into the
start of the workweek, with minimum humidity falling closer to
15-35%. Overnight recoveries will remain good at 45-70% across the
area. Overall quiet weather conditions are forecast Sunday
through at least the first half of next week, with temperatures
rebounding back into the normal range by Monday, and with light
winds each day favoring typical diurnal tendencies. A shift in the
weather pattern late next week and into next week may bring about
cooler, wetter, and breezier conditions.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...18/Benedict
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Kuhlman