491
FXUS65 KPSR 082149
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
249 PM MST Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures will persist through
  the first half of the week before warming up towards the end of
  the week into next weekend as readings approach 110 degrees
  across portions of the region.

- Breezy conditions will continue through Tuesday, particularly
  across the Arizona higher terrain areas, resulting in elevated
  fire weather conditions.

- Seasonably dry conditions will persist through the next several
  days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
GOES mid-level WV imagery and RAP40 500mb analysis show the first
troughing feature, that swept through the Pacific NW over the
weekend, now well into Canada. Behind that initial system is another
trough that has continued to keep broad troughing over the Western
CONUS. However, even with this troughing in place, near normal
height anomalies remain in place over the Desert SW as this second
troughing feature will be contained well to the north. With that
being said, afternoon high temperatures today will be between 98F-
102F across the western lower deserts and between 102F-105F across
south central AZ. As the axis of this broad troughing sweeps up
towards the NE H5 heights across the western lower deserts will
quickly go from 583-585 dam today to between 588-591 dam across the
entire lower deserts by Tuesday. As heights aloft continue to build,
temperatures will increase in response, with afternoon highs
tomorrow forecasted to be in the 103F-106F range across the entire
lower desert. This will be around 2-3 degrees above normal for this
time of year, and just the beginning for some warmer temperatures
ahead.

Otherwise, afternoon breezy conditions will continue today across
the lower Colorado River area, then shift into the eastern higher
terrain Tuesday as the troughing feature passes to our north. During
this time gusts between 20-25 mph will be common in each respective
area and time. Additionally, with MinRH values continuing to hover
near 10%, and very dry fuels, wide spread elevated fire weather
conditions will persist today, with minor improvement starting
Tuesday, however, caution should still be practiced.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/...
The synoptic pattern through the middle to latter half of the
week will be transitioning as the longwave trough will lift east
northeastward, allowing upper-level ridging to take hold across
much of the western CONUS. As a result, upper-level heights will
be on the rise with the latest guidance indicating 500 mb heights
increasing to near 590dm by the end of the week into next
weekend. This will allow for temperatures to warm up into an above
normal category, potentially as high as 5-8 degrees above normal.
This means that many of the lower desert communities will be
approaching 110 degrees for afternoon highs as early as Friday and
continuing into the weekend.

In addition to the increasing temperatures, guidance is also showing
an increase in moisture by the end of the week and the weekend as
southerly mid-level flow increases. The latest EPS and GEFS show
PWATs increasing as high 1.0-1.2" across much of southern AZ. This
increase in moisture would certainly be enough for some isolated
convection to materialize across the AZ high terrain and will be
something to monitor during the next several forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1736Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather impacts expected through Tuesday under mostly
clear skies. Winds will continue to mostly follow typical diurnal
trends. A period of southerly crosswinds are expected at KPHX and
KDVT midday through early afternoon before W-SW becomes more
predominant. There is some uncertainty in whether the diurnal E
winds will fully develop early Tuesday morning at all terminals,
but speeds will be very light in the morning. This afternoon, wind
speeds up to 8-13 kts with gusts up to 15-20 kts are expected.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected during the next 24
hours. Winds will follow familiar diurnal trends at KIPL, while
KBLH sees a more consistent S`rly component that will become
breezy (20-25 kt gusts) during this afternoon. Other than some
high clouds moving in later in the period, skies will be mostly
clear.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions will persist through Tuesday as
elevated breeziness combine with very low RH values. Afternoon
breeziness will peak at 20-25 mph, highest across the AZ higher
terrain areas. MinRHs will bottom out near 10% with poor overnight
recoveries. Heading towards the middle to latter half of the work
week, winds will be lighter, decreasing the overall fire weather
threat. However, with MinRHs continuing to bottom out in the
single digits to lower teens, even some marginal breeziness can
create localized elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Lojero
AVIATION...Benedict/RW
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero/RW